“The US economy is heading for a cooldown.”
-The Federal Reserve raised rates this week because it hasn’t done so in 20 years, US stocks are falling and debt burdens are growing, will a global crisis come?
There are three phenomena: a pandemic, a war and a return of global inflation. Of the three, the dominant is the one with inflation, mainly in the US They believe that the increase in prices is temporary, but now they realize that it is permanent. If the Reserve does not act quickly, inflation could rise as it did in the 1970s. Therefore, interest rates still have room to rise and what will cause this movement will be a recessive impact on the economy and therefore on the value of companies. The stock market will go down. The same thing happened in the 70s.
– Wall Street closed on Friday and tech companies were collapsing, was there a bubble like in the 2000s in dotcoms?
I can’t see. That was a speculative bubble. Here the issue, I insist, is that inflation went from 2% to 8% in the short term. We live in another world today. In between there has been a larger expansion of money than in 2008 and that combination raises fears of a recession.
– Can the US lower inflation without damaging the economy?
No. There is a cooling, what else. GDP fell in the first quarter of the year. The labor market is super hot, wages are rising and the way they think to control inflation is to regulate demand by raising rates.
-Why is the dollar rising around the world while other assets are not?
In other moments of crisis the dollar has become a haven of value. But in this case, moreover, we see that the US is raising rates compared to Europe and Japan. That leads to strengthening the dollar around the world.
-How does this affect Argentina?
This is very positive because what we are seeing right now is an increase in prices. Argentina is a net exporter of raw materials. However, it should be clarified that in the short term, the impact will not be clear as the price of exports has risen but imports have also increased, mainly liquefied gas. Thus the effect of improved terms of trade on reserves is not seen and the The financial impact will be negative because the amount of subsidies will be higher than the benefit of the restraints.
– A super cycle of goods like in the 2000s to come?
It is too early to say that. Commodities began to rise in pandemic and intensified in war. Some are so high as liquefied gas and one would think that when the war is over, they will go down. But I think we are going to a world of higher commodities in general.
-You participated in meetings with investors in Washington and New York after the IMF Spring Assembly. What is being said about Argentina?
Argentina is a market that has been historically important. Especially with fixed income. Investors in the country lost interest after the failure of the previous government and then due to default and restructuring among bondholders. The coup de grace was when they gave us the standalone note. Now a combination of things is happening: in 2023 there are elections and investors believe there may be change where they see that there may be improvement. Bonds and shares are now issued. If Argentina enters a stage of normalcy, it starts to look like other countries; then bond values were low and people started asking questions. Today there are no cheap things in the world. Not many people buy Argentina, but yes they ask and know.
– It will not be easy even after 2023
All the problems we see today will continue. will be a hard situation to drive, but if you go in the right direction, the assets are worth more than they are now.
– The legacy that a hypothetical PvC government will receive: is it better or worse than in 2015?
In many things it is better and in others it is not. Arrears on relative prices will be smaller, usually tariffs and dollars. The deficit is large, but in 2015 it was 5% of GDP and now it is no more than 3%. Against this there is greater poverty and inflation as well. Inflation may be between 60% -70% this year and I don’t see it going down. Any ‘mistake’ can lead inflation at 100%.
-What do you mean?
Inflation jumps occur when there is rates Y devaluation. The next government will find a lot of pressure to fix both.
-How do you see Martín Guzmán?
Guzman received unexpected props, such as unexpected rent. It’s not because he’s a good minister: inflation, the gap and the risk of the country have increased. The agreement did not work with bondholders and we do not know how the IMF will end. But the market wants Guzmán to stay.
-How do you see the opposition, JxC?
Trying to understand what he will receive and what is wrong with his tenure. In 2015, it was very fast on the financial side and very slow on the financial side. I think now it should be the other way around. Argentina cannot have a deficit because they are not lending to us, we are not Colombia or Brazil. And in the monetary area, we need to slow down, not remove the trap from one day to the next. The big difficulty is to reduce the deficit and leave social assistance.
Source: Clarin
