The foreign exchange market has managed to be stable after the tension in the first months of the year and the fear of a jump in the dollar seemed to be left. The analyst’s projections now agree the exchange rate achieved since February and aggregated last month It can extend until at least the middle of the year.

The factors that pushed up the similar exchange rate at the beginning of 2022, such as the large injection of the peso in the latter part of last year and the uncertainty caused by the lack of growth in the IMF, seem to have clarified.

With the signing of the Fund agreement, although many doubts about the near future of the economy remain, there are also only certainty: inflation will continue to win races for the rest of the year, and the exchange rate update will run in the background. From January to March, the BCRA proved an 8% increase in the official dollar, but the remaining prices in the economy moved closer to 15%.

The blue dollar, which on Friday hit its lowest point of the year by closing at $ 199, is accumulating a 4.5% decline since the first business day of January. Meanwhile, financial dollars are also “losing” against the jump in the IPC and returning from prices where they closed in 2021: the MEP dollar is now trading 4% cheaper than at the beginning of the year, while cash with liquidation. it was only trading over 6% less than at that time.

Thus, the The gap between wholesaler and informal narrowed from its highest 110% at the end of January to 79.1% where he closed the last wheel. Analysts agree that things are set to remain more or less stable. “For the exchange rate gap we expect some rebound but it will be defeated against inflation,” said economist Fernando Marull.

For his part, Lucio Garay Mendez, from Eco Go, pointed out that as long as the gap continues to narrow, exchange rate peace can be extended. “With this acceleration of inflation -higher performance of CER instruments- in the framework of an economy with rate increases, in conjunction with an official exchange rate that still does not keep pace with inflation, a carry trade mechanism is formed, in which capital enters and lowers the price of parallel quotes“, he explained.

In this line, the Equilibra consultancy team pointed out in a report by Lorena Giorgio: “With a crawling peg of 4% on average for April, the solidarity dollar (with PAIS tax 30% and earnings perception 35%) will close month around $ 195, in accordance with current financial prices: the exchange trap lays the floor in the space, that it will hardly maintain around 65% for a long time ”.

The consensus now is that the dollar will again be used as an anchor, to prevent further price increases. “In the coming months there seems to be no anchor for lowering inflationthe increase in rates does not seem to be enough, the regulated/rates are behind and there are increases, “added Garay Mendez.

In turn, he pointed out: “The only mechanism left is to try to initiate the dollar a bit as a semi-anchor scheme, but at the same time there is a commitment on the part of the Government including the IMF not to delay. exchange rate, and it puts a floor on what the dollar can rise from it. ”

In this scenario, it would be key to maintaining exchange rate stability, the gymnastics applied by the Central Bank to strengthen the attractiveness of peso rates and at the same time meet the purpose of accumulating its reserve agreements reached with the IMF.

“If inflation records like in February are repeated in March and April, without a strong response from BCRA and Treasury rate policy, expectations (both inflation and devaluation) and demand for alternative dollars could be “trigger, in response to the loss of attractiveness of carry trade. The chances of re-heating the exchange rate gap depend on the severity of the shock of expectations and the response of monetary policy,” they pointed out to Equilibra.

Regarding the ability to regenerate Central fire power, Marull expects: “It is expected that in the second quarter the Central Bank will be able to buy reserves. We expect that from the objectives of the purchase of approximately US $ 3,000 of reserves , the BCRA could make US $ 2.9 billion by June. Using the agriculture plus stocks formula, you should buy this amount, which is the same as you bought last year. “