The alert in the world is growing due to the possible shortage of wheat. A new opportunity for Argentina?
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that “Russia initiated a grain war which brings a food crisis around the world ”and released a global alert for him food costs.
Russia is blocking the ports of Europe’s main wheat supplier and grain prices continue to rise. A ton of wheat that traded at $ 277 at the beginning of the year is now approximately US $ 440, an increase of 59%. The said a further shock where the planet already lives in terms of energy.
In Argentina, the first response came from President Alberto Fernández: “The instrument on which it is best decoupled is withholdings, but These are a legislative issue and I need Congress. But he said he would lose Congress and could be hit by a tractor.
The response of field representatives was immediate, with a reasonable argument: now there are maintenance and such decoupling does not occur: Food inflation continues to top the monthly ranking of increases in the cost of living index prepared by INDEC.
ademore, and this is an issue that is commonly overlooked by politics, the increase of withholding when the money gap between the official dollars and the free ones are at 80% will be a very strong blow for the producers what now they already receive 30% for export duty and your exchange rate is far away the lowest From the market.
Will the Government raise withholdings (Minister Julián Domínguez has already come out to say no), or will it choose to close exports or set quotas? These are doubts added to a particular moment of the world that, for producers, could be a sign that Argentina has the capacity to produce food, in this case a exceptional priceor could be another missed opportunity.
The external sector of Argentina continue to get positive signs (grains, energy, mining) but also this month there is a weak side present. So far in May, the Central Bank has only been able to raise foreign exchange reserves at US $ 600 million, last year at US $ 2,000 million.
Ang ghost of the second semester with another deficit in dollar terms Central opened the yellow lights to companies to come trying to advance payment of imports and following the cancellation of external debt whenever possible.
take dollars at a wholesale price of US $ 118 is one of top priority ranking activities of companies.
Meanwhile, the government continues tupacamarizing Miguel Pesce’s management between stocks against the greater need for foreign currency to pay for imports and the decision to delay the dollar’s rise against inflation, as he had agreed with the International Monetary Fund.
Growing at 4% per month, the official dollar is running backwards in an inflation that in March was 6.7% and in April 6%, in a context, in addition, of strengthening of the dollar around the world and there are devaluations of the currencies of emerging countries. Argentina is ending up with a revaluation of the peso.
The tug-of-war between the official exchange rate (somewhat delayed to moderate impact on the cost of living) and inflation is almost zero and that monthly marks how food (but also clothing and electronic products) step on the accelerator, boosting uncertainty about the second semester.
There are planned increases in electricity, gas, fuel rates that add to the race between inflation and wages characterized by joint negotiations leading to increases of 60% or more.
The last tender Martín Guzmán called to get funds clarified that economic weight there, but the Treasury must offer charges and bonds very short time and interest is paid based on inflation.
Everything in the short term, everything is indexed and there is the Treasury that, despite getting more funds from the market, inevitably turn to the Central Bank draw more pesos to fill the holes in the unbalanced economy.
Does anyone believe that a pizza will cost less than 5 pesos for raising withholdings?
In April the primary deficit was $ 79,184, a jump of 591% on the year
Source: Clarin
