At US $ 85 billion, exports will set a record this year, but neither will the dollar.

On the impetus of global grain price increases, exports are outlined to close the year on $ 85 billion, which will set a historical record. If this figure comes true, it will increase by 10% compared to the amount exported last year.

Although there are exports at unprecedented levels, foreign currency is not enough to cover the unmet needs of Argentina’s economy and analysts warn that the chances are high that the Monetary Fund need to grant a waiver for failure to meet the reserve target agreed in the agreement.

The previous record was set in 2011, when exports hit US $ 82,981 million.

Behind the increase is the rise in international prices pushed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the first quarter, exports added US $ 27,681 million and this increase was explained by an increase of 22.5% in prices and 4.8% in quantities. In the midst of the conflict, soy sauce on Thursday reached the $ 634.

Despite the jump in exports, the country continues to be hit because the dollar is insufficient. Imports have risen -reach US $ 24,852 million in the first quarter din feel the impact of the war. Thus, external fuel purchases grew 201% in April and part of foreign currency inflows.

In May, fuel prices continued to rise and the Central Bank’s goal of accumulating reserves became complicated. With only four wheels left to close the moon, Central was barely able to buy $ 870 million and this Thursday he had to go out and sell for US $ 50 million.

To meet the purpose of the reserve agreed with the Monetary Fund, the Central Bank should accumulate US $ 4,800 million by the end of the year and there is only one month left in the “golden quarter” where the field is focusing on the largest liquidation of reserves. So far in May, Central was left with only 35% of the liquidations of agro-exporters.

For consulting firm EcoGo “the current level of imports was US $ 6,900 million in April and May, and consequently the level of activity, is not compatible with the IMF program “. EcoGo is projecting that exports will close the year at US $ 85,000 million.

“On a conservative forecast, our expected value is $ 85 billion of exports, but due to international prices remaining at high levels they can provide more and even strategy $ 90 billion“, said Elisabet Bacigalupo, from consulting firm Abeceb.

Bacigalupo predicted that this year there will be between US $ 2,500 and US $ 3,000 million additional contributions from agriculture, another US $ 5,500 million from hydrocarbons, 35% above 2021, as the automotive sector will reach of US $ 7,000 million, a thousand million more. than last year. These three items account for 60% of exports.

“This is the paradox of Argentina. We will have exports of US $ 26,000 million on top of 2018, and even then it will not be enough, even with price increases,” the economist said.

“Exports are the only real source of the dollar, as there are no investments or financing. The demand for foreign currency is growing to import, pay off debts, for tourism and even with loaded stocks, it is difficult for Central to accumulate dollars during the thick harvest ”.

The difficulty in increasing reserves extends to other countries in the region that also benefit from good commodity prices, but at the same time have more import costs due to the global increase in fuel prices.

Brazil closed April with total reserves US $ 348,268 million, a 10% decrease on the March record. In Paraguay, the reserves are in US $ 9,382 million, 8.2% less than a year ago. In Chile, the reserves are in US $ 48,610.1 million, a decrease of 5% compared to March, but a jump of 12% compared to April 2021. In Uruguay they reached US $ 16,645 million, 4% more than a year ago.

The difference between these countries and Argentina is that they are not tied to an agreement with the IMF that forces them to increase their reserves.

Now the total reserve is in US $ 41,462 million and the net to US $ 5,768 million, according to EcoGo estimates. Marina Dal Poggetto consultant forecast that net reserves will close in the year $ 8 billion and it was in September that Argentina had to make a waiver to the IMF to prevent the collapse of the agreement.

AQ