This year there will be fewer gas cuts in the industry

By

Cledis Candelaresi

Although meteorologists predict that this winter there will be waves of low temperatures and Argentina will be limited in the gas it can supply to consumption centers, the possibility of a massive reduction in the industry consuming it has melted away. Some support from the region and good rainfall will ease supply, although they have not significantly improved the financial picture: purchases of liquefied petroleum gas at about US $ 1,000 million per month are complicating public accounts and the fulfillment of IMF objectives.

In a complex macroeconomic and energy scenario, we are beginning to see opportunities that companies will no longer have to suffer cuts that would complicate their production work, paralyze it or make it more expensive due to the use of more expensive fuel.

Even, these delays are not now estimated to be large or prolonged as feared until a few weeks ago, according to the view of some experts advising both the Government and large companies.

One of the keys is that Began to import 1,500 megawatts from Brazilproduct of a recent agreement managed by Martín Guzmán and Daniel Scioli, which satisfied even the most skeptical observers of official management.

replace that will allow the country to restore power from the end of spring, at that time there was no need to attend a peak in demand due to the cold. At the same time, it is not included in today’s disbursing of dollars to pay for it, the main point of the formula.

Gas is at the forefront of the local energy matrix and what is produced inside is not enough to meet all needs. Brazil is mainly dependent on hydroelectric plants, so the climate can be a balm or a punishment.

So far, the rains have allowed Jair Bolsonaro’s country to send electricity through interconnection points in Mesopotamia, based on an agreement of gentlemen in the Alberto Fernández administration.

Both rains provide more production opportunities to have hydroelectric plants and thus there is less demand for less gas to be carried from distant places by ship at a higher price.

Brazil’s other contributions include the third member of the triangle: Bolivia, which has increased its sales to 14 million cubic meters per day and promises to increase it to 20 million, in case Argentina needs it.

As that country’s reserves decline, these goals are only possible if it violates a contract with Brazil, with supply priority.

In reality, everyone suggests that it is convenient for the Bolivian YPFB to pay a fine for violating its agreement with a neighbor because the agreement with Argentina is more profitable. The merger — which is currently underway de facto because the announcements do not match the signed documents — seems to be serving everyone.

A local gas producer charges between $ 3.5 per MBTU (the caloric unit); Bolivian gas is priced at between 12 and 18 dollars, depending on the season, and liquefied gas, which arrives by sea, has now dropped to 30.

IEASA, the state firm that manages imports, released in March ships with liquefied gas worth US $ 850 million and purchases in April were close to 1,200 million. Between one thing and another Argentina will mostly cover energy needs until the end of July.

Chosen by the public company a more daring approach, of the purchase delay, expecting to lower the price of LPG eagerly demanded by Europe and Asia. So far, a hit.

Liquid gas costs four times more than it did last year. But in recent weeks it has collapsed and buying batches is helping to get that advantage.

The combination of all these factors will alleviate the anguish of industrialists who need gas to produce. In fact, there is no specified schedule of planned lossesbecause it must be designed at this time of year.

Large companies are provided by contracts at prices higher than those paid by residential consumers or businesses. So far this year, gas and electricity prices for this category of user have risen significantly and, if this is added to the presence of forced shutdowns due to lack of fuel or the need to replace it with more expensive ones, it will be complicated in cost. chart.

When extreme cold hits and there is a lot of consumption in homes for heating, there will be some cuts in industries, although not in the framework of the widespread paralysis envisaged at the beginning of the year.

however, those fresh breezes don’t get to public accounts. Beyond temporary price changes, energy imports continue to be a nightmare.

Heavy imports in dollars are assumed as a State expense, which now covers 75% of the price of gas used by consumers with regulated rates. Thus, the amount of subsidies does not find a ceiling.

In recent months, the Nation’s primary and financial deficits have not stopped climbing, partly driven by the energy subsidy, which in April climbed 90% real. That is, comfortably beat inflation.

The agreement with the Fund includes the macro goal of lowering this fiscal contribution by the equivalent of 0.6% of GDP, something that seems impossible and will make the Economy uncomfortable during the quarterly review.

For the Secretary of Energy, spending this winter does not imply disregard for the next, when shortage concerns are re -released.

The The good short -term bet is the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline, which will allow more gas to be transported from Vaca Muerta to the consumption center. Budget forecasts have been made, but the lack of dollars has complicated the purchase of pipes that Techint must import from Brazil, and civil works have not yet begun to tender.

If everything is on the right track, to face the cold of 2023 Argentina should have at least 11 million m3 per day more. Not enough to meet all needs, but an important step to stop the dispute over expensive LPG among Europeans and Asians.

Later, one can imagine the second phase of the work, bringing together Argentina as an exporter of the remaining gas. Either to ship it to the south of Brazil or to a liquefaction plant near a port. From there to the world.

for the economy, by 2027 it could export US $ 15,000 million per year of liquefied gas, then invest 10,000 in a plant that allows it to melt and in the pipelines that feed it. The underground gas is left over. What is lacking is foreign exchange to finance the infrastructure.

yes then Europeans will certainly be independent from Russian gas, the idea with which the Foreign Ministry also works takes more body: that Europe itself contributes to the plant. China is also a possible financier of some infrastructure, if the conditions are right.

But regardless of the nationality of the potential capital, you’ll want that ever since guaranteed freedom to pick up the gas and dollars involved in the project. Guaranteed that Congress could not offer because of its paralysis and forced the Executive to seek an ordinance to facilitate the availability of foreign currency