Tickets and cards: spending quadrupled in a year and is almost at pre-stock levels

expenses with overseas paper, travel and air tickets are at pre-stock levels. Between January and April, $ 2,009 million went in total for these concepts, a figure that is four times higher than the same period last year ($ 574 million).

The comparison is influenced by travel restrictions, a product of pandemicpartly still operating at the beginning of 2021. But also for the incentives to ask for greater consumption of these services, following the misalignment of economic variables. in 2021 private salary grew 56%, more than double the retail dollar price (22%) or, in other words, the dollar became cheaper.

Indeed, for many analysts, what is really behind the acceleration of these spending in tourism is more the delay in the exchange rate than the effect of the confrontation with the end of the pandemic. Economist Fernando Marull estimates that the backwardness of the dollar has accumulated 20% since Alberto Fernández took office.

Over $ 500 million a month remained in March and April of this year, a similar figure to that of July 2019, before the PASO. And when you take into account that $ 2,740 million was gone in January-April 2019 (there were no stocks yet and the dollar jumped in March), today travel and card spending is closer to that level than that. of 2021 despite the increased restrictions to operate.

The loss of $ 2,000 million in a quarter does not represent a significant figure in macroeconomic terms. But it seems inconsistent given the priorities the government faces. Just to give two examples of what $ 2 billion means for Argentina right now, please note:

– Is similar the amount Argentina owes to the Paris Club ($ 2,000 million) and agreed to defer until 2024.

– It is similar to accumulation of gross reserves in the first quarter (US $ 2,344 million) which was explained, almost entirely, by the proceeds of the loan from the IMF.

Therefore, the Argentine economy lacks a dollar amount of a similar magnitude to the one it requires other countries to delay debt payments and disburse by way of a transfer from the IMF.

“The discussion that is emerging between the staff of the Fund and the Argentine economic team is this: If the country wants to continue to access aid to pay off its debt, it will have to raise the price of the official dollar because financing costs abroad are not justified.Says a source familiar with the negotiations in Washington.

Cristina Kirchner He raised the issue of dollars exiting the economy on Friday in his speech at the YPF 100th anniversary event. of which I speak “import party” and from what “There is a national sport to seize the reserves that are in the Central Bank with different mechanisms. Especially when we have a gap like the one we have “.

In the first four months, there was a trade surplus of $ 2.83 billion. But the outflow of foreign exchange for services increased by $ 2,572 million.

How can this be explained?

Freight payment expenses increased US $ 594 million from a year ago in the first quarter. But the main outflows for services were explained by travel and card payments. In the first quarter, travel and tourism expenses increased by $ 1,435 million compared to last year, up 250%.

“With the current exchange rate delay and the large gap, there are no exports that can last. Clearly, meeting the reserve accumulation target for the second quarter is a titanic task that we don’t believe will be accomplished. “counted Andrés Borenstein, economist at Econviews, in a note.

The eight shows Coldplay in River this year, the stadium of Wembley Wednesday full of Argentines to see Argentina-Italy and the increase in the collection of COUNTRY tax (for which the purchase of dollars for hoarding is taxed) of 330.8%, were the comments of the week of the market according to which the Argentines, still on the stock exchange, are fleeing the peso in full acceleration of inflation.