If there is activity that depends on the blue dollar, it is the building. At all levels: spare parts, building a house for own use or as an investment -in a country or tourist destination-, buying from the well of an apartment in a real estate development, etc.

For this type of activity, the dollar freeze is a real recession. Let’s take a look at what has happened in the last 18 months. The blue dollar rose in October 2020 and stopped once the CFK came out with an accompanying letter asking their own government to “do something”. In those days he was speeding on the edge of 200 pesos, but an average for that month of $ 170. Almost the same amount was paid this Friday.

In the middle, inflation has accumulated an increase of 70%.

Let’s look at what happened to the key variables for construction, comparing October 2020 to March 2022.

– The blue dollar rose 18%

– Ang labor price, according to the sector Chamber index, it rose 84%

– Ang cost of materials increased by 89%

-The labor costs increased by 72%

A clear conclusion: the “combined” in the dollar yields less in relation to materials, manufacture, in other words, in relation to the square meter built.

Who took the job from the well requires more and more dollars to deal with the payment of agreed quotas. Who will deal with a job, too.

However, the cost of construction -measured in dollars per square meter- is lower than in 2017. But it is clear that the scenario is no longer one of “building at very low cost”.

The anesthetized dollar is not just a complication, now, for those who think in bricks.

The same should happen to those with dollars outside the financial system, in safe deposit boxes or “on the mattress.” And not just because of the phenomenon of “green” inflation in Argentina, but because of world inflation. Today, having a dollar that is not moving is missing about 7% if the inflation of the last 12 months in the United States is taken into account. At some point more or less, the same thing is happening with the euro.

In the real estate sector there are complementary visions. Entrepreneur Norberto Lepore said that the quiet dollar is an additional stimulus to close purchasing operations and also to deal with new projects on the part of developers, who in a certain way take advantage of the impression that savers have the ability to buy of the dollar and there are those who prefer, as an investment, the brick to any other financial asset.

santiago levrio, General Manager of TBT Real Estate, pointed out: “The sector will suffer from non-recapitalization, and this can already be seen in the stock accumulation of brand new suburban homes, which, since they cannot be sold, will not allow the commencement of new works. In this scenario, there is a high probability that we will see construction cost running behind inflation, with the official dollar running behind inflation and sales.

Although hard to believe those who bet on the dollar lost, and at least those who bought them from October 2020 until now. Inflation has run faster and even with negative rates, the conservative fixed term in the peso has become an adequate strategy for bring trade. Anyway, it’s known: nothing forever.