Aggregates stable dollar and high value in pesoduring this period associated with high levels of inflation, allowed savers to return to start the famous “financial bike” in the first three months of the year. Investing in pesos, but getting profits in dollars has become an interesting bet: from January to March leaving 22% gains in hard currency.

“Carry trade” is once again in vogue among savers and investors. It implies the sale of foreign currency to subscribe to investments in pesos, from fixed terms indexed to CER-compliant bonds, and as a result of that investment, repurchasing dollars to be able to repeat the maneuver.

“In the first quarter of 2022, it will be easier to get dollar revenue with peso alternatives. to take advantage of the concrete advantage of inflation. Boosted by the appreciation of the currency, the options linked to the index showed dollar returns of up to 22% in the quarter (121% annualized), ”said Nery Persichini of GMA Capital.

Although, after rising rates, even investors on traditional fixed terms can “ride the bike”, assets following inflation are the most sought after, as they are the ones getting the best dollarized return , both real and nominal. .

If a saver shares his or her dollars at the beginning of the year to invest in a traditional fixed term, even with the three rate adjustments made by the Central Bank in 2022, it lost the race against prices, but gained a profit of 15.5% on the dollar.

“From the end of January, there has been a very favorable extension of time for the accumulation of foreign currency earnings,” Persichini said, adding: “Our carry trade index with fixed terms (BADLAR) shows one of the largest valuations in recent yearsonly surpassed improvement at the end of 2020 after overshooting financial exchange rates ”.

In the bond market, indexed bonds are the most in demand and part of Martín Guzmán’s funding strategy in the local market for this year.o. “CER bonds continue to shine, hand in hand with high inflation records and a regional context that drives currencies to appreciate, which in our case translates into a financial dollar running downwards, ”Delphos analysts said.

“Right now this trend seems to be continuing in the right direction, with few more profitable alternative options in the world of fixed income,” they added. In the Mutual Funds industry, the appetite for carrying is clear: since inflation data for February was published, the income of investors in CER-related FCIs has increased from $ 3.7 billion to $ 5.3 billion daily.

Continuing, even if the consensus is that the stability of the exchange depends on the Government adhering to what was agreed with the IMF prior to the various instances of analysis of the organism, if the forecast of higher rates continues, the depreciation of similar dollars may widen further, which will strengthen. the returns on investments tied to inflation.

However, Lorena Giorgio, from Equilibra, warns: “Although financial and financial conditions are in favor of continued calm in foreign exchange markets, current prices will be one floor and the main risk will continue to be surprising expectations. (mainly for a potential breach of the IMF agreement) preventing carry-trade ”.