Soaring cereals and fertilizers: the war in Ukraine has contributed to the aggravation of food crises, with the expected consequences in 2022 of a dramatic increase in fees for importing countries, which will pay “more for at less “, warns the FAO.
Global food import spending is expected to increase by $ 51 billion [à 1800 milliards de dollars] compared to 2021, including 49 billion simply because of rising prices said the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in its report Food Perspective released on Thursday.
This bill increase is explained mainly by rising prices and transportation costs rather than by increasing volumesemphasizes the CAM.
Since 2022, world production of basic cereals is expected to decline for the first time in four yearsas well as their use around the world, which is declining for the first time in 20 years.
Global wheat production should drop slightly, to 771 million tonnes according to CAMin a tense context, with more uncertain yields due to drought, as in India, and due to the war in Ukraine, where according to the national cereal association, production will drop by at least 40% , where exports were split (up to 10 million). tons).
Search is a cause for concern: many poor countries are spending more without receiving more foodsays the UN organization.
However, he tempers, the direct consumption of cereals for human consumption should not be affected, because the decrease will come from a reduction in the use of wheat, coarse grain and rice for animal feed.
Wheat rose 40%
The CAM The analysis focuses specifically on the impact of the war on Ukraine, a conflict involving two agricultural superpowers that make up 30% of the world’s wheat trade and 78% of sunflower oil exports.
He is particularly interested in wheat, whose prices have jumped nearly 40% since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
More than thirty countries, net importers of wheat, rely on the two countries [Russie et Ukraine] for at least 30% of their importsreport of CAM.
While rising food prices are common a blessing for producersthe report questions the ability of farmers around the world to buy inputs in the face of rising prices.
The CAM is particularly concerned about lowering yields for the next harvest if some farmers decide to reduce their fertilizer applications – its prices will triple in a year and where Russia is one of the world’s leading exporter.
The impact of sanctions against Russia
The organization points out that, while international sanctions against Moscow do not target agricultural products, they do weaken Russia’s banking sector and the country’s ability to manage international transactions.
The war greatly slowed exports from the Black Sea region due to the blockage of Ukrainian ports and the rising price of insurance for bulk carriers sailing in this area. As the new harvest approaches, the question of grain storage in Ukraine will also arise, where there may be a shortage of silos.
If grains of wheat or corn can be stored for several years under good storage conditions, Sunflower nuggets need to be pressed immediately after harvest to get the highest possible oil yield.pick up CAM.
Source: Radio-Canada
