The blue dollar closed at $ 210 and cash with liqui rose to $ 227

Alternative dollars ended the week with strong gains: blue closed at $ 210 and cash with liqui went to $ 227the highest price in the last four months.

Until last week, the dollar counted on liquidity had increased 7% over the year. In the last couple of days he made the leap: it went from $ 210 to $ 227 and therefore corrected year-over-year growth of 12.6%.

The comeback of the CCL is dragging the blue dollar, albeit at a much more tiring pace, than this week it went from $ 206 to $ 210and hit its highest price in the last 100 days.

The dollar or the MEP’s stock exchange was also reorganized, rising to $ 220.95. The rise in alternative dollars is the opposite of what happened with Argentine stocks, especially inflation-adjusted ones.

With inflation at 60% year-on-year, CER bonds were favored by investors in a scenario that invited a carry trade: buying stocks to win from the CPI’s hand and when signs emerged that the dollar it was close to waking up, switching to hard currency.

These signs have begun to be felt in the last few days. GMA Capital notes that in the seven rounds of June$ 59.9 billion left index-linked mutual funds and $ 19 billion left 24-hour redemption funds

The ERC bleeding went into hiatus this Friday, after the strong intervention of the Central Bank – estimated in purchases close to 40,000 million dollars – a place a limit on index-linked bonds. In this session, CER bonds have recovered around 1%, but have fallen by 15% in the past five days.

The pesos that exited CER bonds today put pressure on the alternative dollars. For analysts, these currencies still have ground to cover, because the comeback they show so far this year does not even reach half the inflation accumulated over the period.

“The events of this week reinforce our view of the free exchange rate for the second half of the year: both government intervention in the secondary securities market yesterday and today, and many of the tools available to the government to reconstructing the weight curve are expansive at the monetary level and add pressure to the free exchange rate (CCL)“, indicated by the Consultatio.

“More than $ 6 on every $ 10 of debt in pesos is indexed. The share rises due to both inflation and Treasury placements (no one wants pesos bonds without hedging). And the CER debt is already 20% of the total gross debt, which includes USD and IMF bonds, among others, ”says economist Nery Persichini to give context to Martín Guzmán’s concern.

“The market is evaluating several hypotheses behind the sell-off, such as the seasonal need for funds by companies, the anticipation of fears of reprofiling and movements by official bodies, among others. In any case, the events have shown crudely how vulnerable the weight curve is and the limited options that remain for the government to comply with the financial program“, poses from GMA-

The government will face its first trial next week, when it will have to renew a small deadline of 11 billion dollars. But the key test will come at the end of the month, when Martín Guzmán will have to go out and convince the market to renew the deadlines for 600 billion dollars.

Against this backdrop, dollar bonds continue to seek a floor. In this wheel they have dropped to 3% and therefore already have a 29% slump in the year. Even so, country risk showed a slight decrease of 0.3%, 2044 basis points. Over the year, the JP Morgan indicator rose 20%.

The worst of the day was experienced by Argentine stocks listed abroad. Hit on two fronts – the heightened stress of the Argentine market and the black day on Wall Street when it was announced that inflation in the United States is climbing 8% per year -, ADRs fell by up to 7%. The company affected was Mercado Libre, which sank by 7.6%.

AQ