The dollar used by companies has woken up and there is concern about a rise in the blue

After a week of maximum tension on the local financial market, stock exchange activity will resume on Monday in a context of marked distrust of investors and consequent asset volatility. The collapse of stocks linked to inflation in recent days It took the price of the financial dollar out of its “hibernation,” which ended in the high zone of 2022 on Friday.

Council’s question in recent days was how quickly the government will do “damage control” following the massive exit by mutual funds of their positions in CER debt, whether it will be able to restore relative stability to the local market and what will be the effects of these movements on the rest of the variables financial.

With all eyes on the joint strategy facing the Treasury and the Central Bank, one of the analysts’ questions is what is the reaction that the price of the American ticket can have on the street. Although the blue dollar does not seem that sensitive to market movements, the price is based on that of financial dollars.

Informal ended Friday higher, at $ 210, behind the rally in liquidity with liquidation, which rose $ 17 to $ 227 in just two days. It was therefore one step away from its recent all-time high, the $ 211 it had hit in January in the midst of another crisis of confidence in the market, given the lack of definitions on the agreement with the Fund that investors were seeing at the time. .

“The blues are small, they are the pesos of the people on the street. It does not react immediately to a jump in cash, but follows the trend of this price. If the gap between the blue and the financials is triggered, the blue will inevitably respond with raises“a market participant told Clarin.

Although cash with liqui, which ended the week with an 8% rise, had its fastest rise in four months in the past two reels, this price is still decoupled from the rise in the rest of the economy’s prices. with comfortable travel inflation above 5%. Two key figures will be released this week: May Indec CPI and BCRA’s rate decision.

“After continuous weeks of stagnation and little variability, they reacted,” said Ayelén Romero, of Rava. “The doubts of the market are installed whether this will be a starting point for a major upward and vertical escalation of the exchange rate. A great unknown to which investors will be able to respond over the days “.

In the game of City in the CCL he still has a lot to gain. “At the worst moment of 2020, liquidity with liquids has come to quote, at today’s values, close to $ 300 and the exchange rates very decoupled from the evolution of the remunerated liabilities of the Central Bank “, indicated in the advice 1816.

A similar view was demonstrated in Consultatio, which added that the second half of the year will be bullish for financial exchange rates. “Both the intervention of public bodies in the secondary bond market on Thursday and Friday, and many of the tools that the government has at its disposal to recompose the weight curve they are monetary expansionary and add pressure to the free exchange rate“, they stated.

The perfect peso bond storm hit dollar debt again at a time of weakness for emerging market sovereign bonds. With falls of between 6% and 8% for the securities entered into the 2020 swap, country risk hit a new record this year, rising to 2,044 points.

This also puts pressure on the price of parallel dollars. As explained by a market analyst, the gap between the wholesaler and the liquidity account, which returned to 83.3% on Friday, was always three-digit when the indicator that measures the bank JP Morgan was above 1,900 points.