This Tuesday the Indec will release inflation data for May, which it would be around 5.5%. Despite being a step below the previous two months (6.7% in March and 6% in April), the indicator is still high and with little chance of a downside in the medium term. For June, the consumer price index (CPI) will continue to be above 5%: private projections already place it at 5.1%, with a new increase in foodrumor that had slowed the rise in May.
For the consultancy firm LCG, inflation in May was 5.2%. In the first week of June, the LCG food inflation index increased by 2.8%which shows an acceleration of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous week.
“All categories of the index had a positive impact on the overall increase, standing out bakery products and meats with an incidence greater than 0.5 points“.
The LCG survey reflects that 30% of the products that make up the basket measured by the consultant had increases in the first week of this month. This is the highest percentage of the year. Based on these data they expect an average inflation of 5% for June.
As for May, the 5.2% LCG projection is based on “some slowdown in the growth of Food and Beverage after the initial shock of the war in Ukraine (5% on average in May), a category that would contribute 1.3 percentage points to the total CPI “.
Added to this were specific increases in May of 11% in Fuel, 8% in Prepaid, 9.5% in Telephony, cable and internet, 15.5% in CNG, 9% for domestic employees , between 15% and 20% increase in expenses and 8% increase for private schools in Buenos Aires. Between all of them, last month they would contribute about 1.7 additional points.
In this way, for LCG the projection of inflation towards the end of the year reaches 75%. The figure is in line with the estimate of the Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out month by month by the Central Bank and which in the May edition reached 72.7%.
From you, the consultant EcoGo records a 1% advance in food inflation for the first week of Juneagainst the 0.9% that those prices had moved in the last week of May.
At the beginning of June, one of the most marked leavening is that of bread, which advanced 4,8% thus interrupting the downward trend it had shown in the last weeks of May. For EcoGo this is proof of the “small result” of the wheat fund created by the Secretary of Commerce when it was in the hands of Roberto Feletti and under the orbit of the former minister Matías Kulfas. “Only three mills have joined in amid strong criticism from various industry groups,” warned the consultant.
In the first week of June there were also increases of 2.4% in fruit, while vegetables remained stable and meat fell by 1.1%.
The estimate of the advice of Marina dal Poggetto is that Inflation in June will be 5.1%. For May, this consultant’s registration was 5.3%.
Among consultants, the lowest forecast for May was that of Studio Ferreres, which recorded inflation of 4.8%. Among the highest projections is that of the New Economy Studies Center (CENE) of the University of Belgrano, which forecast 5.4% for May.
“Gradualism is certainly not an option in 2023. The inflationary flight will require shock treatment. We can only hope that the measures adopted will not only ensure a drastic drop in inflation, but also open a phase of economic growth and a minimum social cost ”, warned Víctor Beker, director of CENE.
“The next government will face the same dilemma faced by the government that took office in December 2015, which opted for a phased approach. The result was that it was unable to break inflation, which went from 25% in 2015 to over 50% in 2019, “Beker said.
AQ
Annabella Quiroga
Source: Clarin
