Inflation, an out-of-control hurricane that is cornering the government

For the first five months of 2020, the board scores 11.1%; a 21.5% says about the top five of 2021 e 29.3% between January and May 2022. We therefore have a increase of 18.2 percentage points in just three years. And a record, that of 2022, which almost triples what it was at the beginning of the series.

Cantado, in case you were not warned, the figures express the speed at which prices run, thing that skips all the time and that already has changed habits, attitudes and even the lives of many consumers. Everything, in a universe completely immune to controls and K-style locks that the Government has tried, as the only remedy.

A couple of data from the same collection add it to the first five months of 2022 the cost of food increased by 33.7%, double the length compared to the 16% that occurred in the same period of 2020. Very clearly, things are getting worse in none other than essential, essential goods where the electoral base of Christianity.

Without mentioning the numbers as recommended by the marketing rules for cases like this, the phenomenon clearly emerges in the advertising that a well-known supermarket is bombing on TV these days. After a comment on the demand and the quality of the products that the supermarket sells, the protagonist of the advertisement closes his performance with a sound: “Then I’ll take them!” And at the touch he jumps headlong into the pool, from a visibly high diving board.

The “I catch them” and the act of jumping into the pool without delay resemble a cautious “before it’s too late” or, if you prefer, a “Before they get up”. And in fact they allude not only to permanent observations, but also to the very diminishing purchasing power of consumers and the difficulty of projecting basic decisions, sometimes even in the very short term.

All normal in economics dislocated where the absence of prices has reigned for a long time and where it has become customary to deal with the index of the previous month, instead of being governed by the trend of costs. They send indexing to whatever, the old “just in case” and finally the slogan to operate quickly, avoiding the risks of any delay.

Behind the lack of control, uncertainty and the lack of guidance, it pushes inflation that started the new version of Kirchnerism at 36.1%, continued with 50.9% in 2021 and, not to be out of tune, now tip more or well over 60%.

From a moderate if it will be 4.6% monthly average from July, a consultant with years in the market projects 78% in 2022, that is more than double the increase in 2020. The hypothesis would have to be reduced to 3.5% to remain in zone 60, something that only Martín Guzmán is betting on or on which he is said to be betting.

Distributed above in 3, 5 and up to 7 sections, it is difficult to find wage increases that can beat inflation. Including the 60% who, as trade unionist, Cristina Kirchner praised the head of La Bancaria, the Kirchnerista Sergio Palazzo, and the 60% who, without praise of Cristina, Axel Kicillof agreed with the employees of the Province thanks, at least in part, to the funds that outside of sharing the national government hands it over.

It is also from this world that most joint ventures have agreed for up to 9 months, with inflation adjustment clauses and revisions always at hand. A direct relative of untied prices and the inability to put them in order, patchwork is another proof of the unstable equilibrium that dominates decisions.

It is clear or it should be clear that when it comes to equality, a army of informal workers estimated at 7 million people or above 10 million, including self-employed and semi-informal occupations. Good God, here incomes are losing as in the price war and even precarious work is an elusive asset.

According to private studies, the salaries received in this space they fell by 8.6% in real terms between March 2021 and March 2022 and an impressive 34.4% compared to November 2017. Even compared to 2017, the salaries of white workers mark a real setback which averages 19.4%; large but 15 percentage points smaller than 34.4%.

Even when so many numbers are annoying together, it seems inevitable to incorporate what is happening with the baskets that measure poverty and destitution. It’s happening, of course, going up the elevator.

With May inflation built in, the cost of the combination of goods and services that defines the poverty line is around 105,000 pesos a month for a typical family.

This gives a 55% increase over May of last year.

The Basic Food Basket, which determines indigence, is 45,200 pesos and says a 57% increase over May 2021.

Except for prices, everything that moves in this world is definitely going backwards.

Some statistics say that 30% of employees fell into the category of the poor: they are the so-called “New middle class poor”.

Others report that of the others only 3.5 million have an income that allows them to save and, continuously, add that lately the volume of fixed terms has been reduced by 10%.

Says a tourism analyst and the alleged summer of the long weekend: “There is a lot to escape from weight loss, to give you treats whenever possible and to get rid of mental fatigue and anger. We are not facing the economic boom proclaimed by the government ”.

Something very similar exists in the official discourse that beats the patch with imported inflation, with the international price of food and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to lower the price, which is certainly very high, for the part that without apology is up to him.

And since there is nothing to give to the value of the data, more data.

So far this year, the cost of food accumulates a 7.8% increase in Brazil and 13.6% over the past twelve months. In Uruguay the numbers are respectively 6.5 and 10.2%. And in Chile, 12 and 17%.

Against this picture, Argentina has nothing in favor to show.

Here the cost of food has increased by 33.7% since January and by 64.2% in the past twelve monthsAnd if you want to put the official speech to the test, our annual records show six times more than Uruguay; almost five against Brazil and about 4 times against Chile.

Linked to superinflation is the backwardness of the official dollar and followed by a mixture of operations and maneuvers which, fed by an exchange gap that does not fall below 70%, go straight to the always scarce reserves of the Central Bank.

A sample of these months: fueled by international prices at the limit of historical records, agro-industrial exports left $ 15,330 million from January to May. BCRA “bought” or managed to keep only 897 million.

Another, slightly distant, says that last year imports grew by 49.2%: 30% for quantities and a modest 14% for prices. One statistic adds that from an increase that consumed $ 63,184 million, gas and fuel associated with the energy crisis accounted for $ 5,843 million. All quite strange: there have been unprecedented imports into an economy that is improving but not flying.

With that painting in his sights, he just took over customs William Michaelconsidered a tough guy and a tough guy, in the entrepreneur’s frenzied crawl space.

Some interpretations link the appointment to Sergio Massa, of whom Michel has so far been a key adviser, and add that the move has not been consulted with Mercedes Marcó del Pont, the head of the AFIP.

Perhaps the real truth lies in the connection of the new customs director with Ricardo Echegaraywhich he supported in the management of operations against evasion, sometimes more than operations, in the years of Christianity ranging from 2012 to 2015. An antecedent of that time: they had their offices next to each other, that is, permanent contact.