Central Bank exits to defend bond price in another tough week for Martín Guzmán

The business team continues to try to assimilate the vice president’s strong criticism into understanding that Cristina Kirchner wants to escape as much as possible of bad results in terms of inflation that devours people’s pockets and believes that hiding in defense of management is the only way left.

You understand that you report an alleged “import party” it does not correspond to the reality of having had to allocate $ 1,600 million last month and this month would be another $ 2,000 million to pay for imported gas when the total imports would be around 8,000 million dollars.

“No festival” refutes with figures who, instead, lay bare the energetic fragility Argentina, largely determined by the drop in production in years of bitter Kirchnerism and by the delay in the construction of a gas pipeline that could greatly alleviate the foreign exchange balance.

Digestion of the harsh assault on the vice presidency, e the growth of the ghost of his presidential candidacy for 2023, which marks a new scenario, occurs in a delicate financial context in which Minister Martín Guzmán had to propose to bond exchange to public sector holders before fear of not meeting the deadlines of bills and bonds in the coming days.

Guzmán inaugurated the phase of the exchange of indexed bills, taking into account that the payment of taxes of Personal income and assets these weeks are crucial for companies to strip off their titles to get pesos and this favors the collapse of bonds. Now the problem is the weights.

The companies that will have to pay taxes, salaries and Christmas bonuses in the coming days have started to divest shares of mutual funds which, in turn, have disarmed the positions in public securities. Buyers didn’t show up, then the drop in prices was inevitable. Falling prices, rising country risk rates and political uncertainty contributed to the weakness of the market.

It was the Central Bank that came out to try to stop the fall. Only Thursday 23 assigned 40 billion dollars buy bonds and avoid a major landslide.

In this new phase of economic equipment bent against the Kirchnerist assault the Central Bank will play lender of last resort for outstanding pesos bonds that Martín Guzmán raises the interest rate again to raise funds on the market without the need to oblige state bodies to make exchanges. There’s a key race Tuesday.

The theme of the possible rise in the rate in pesos (last week it had already risen by 4 points) became current in the meetings that the minister held with banking associations. The key is that if the return on placements remains negative As for inflation, the temptation to go to the dollar after July It will gain a lot of space if political uncertainty about the ruling party’s future until 2023 subsides.

A palpable case is that of soybean producers who are delaying settlement of operations for the equivalent at $ 2 billionan amount that the Central Bank would recover indispensable for the second part of the year.

The producers hold back and the exporters try to persuade them the risk of a large devaluation is low. Current exchange clamping and the ability to tighten it if necessary has given the Central Bank the leeway to implement an official dollar-bound yield term deposit for liquidators, another sign that the government will continue to be bound overseas to trade arguments. with regular updates.

From now on, at the gates of the second semester, take care of the dollars gets priority from the Central Bank but the market knows that these days the official exchange balance is already in deficit and that without the International Monetary Fund dollars it will be very difficult for it to move smoothly in the near future, but it seems that far, up at the end of the year.