How many dollars do Argentines have outside the system?

Missing dollars? Dollars left.

Who do they belong to? To Argentine or Argentine companies.

Where are they? Some are in foreign banks or outside the local banking system. Another part in bills of exchange “under the mattress”, in foreign property or financial investments, and in shares or debt securities of foreign governments or companies.

In total, they add up to the record of 362,258 million dollars (not counting the reserves of the Central Bank), a figure that resembles public debt according to INDEC data for the first quarter of 2022.

But while the debt corresponds to the national state and is contracted in foreign currency or in pesos adjusted for inflation or in dollars, the 362,258 million dollars they are private and are in banknotes or invested in funds and foreign currencieslargely directly undeclared, which through outflows of capital accumulated over the years outside the local financial system.

I’m 14,383 million dollars more than a year ago when it was estimated at $ 347,875 million.

Much of this private external business is in foreign currency bills and deposits, mainly in dollars, in foreign accounts, in safety deposit boxes or “under the mattress”: they are 243,511 million dollars, declared or not.

A year ago they amounted to $ 235,243 million – an increase of $ 8,268 million.

At the beginning of 2020 it was 227.730 million US $, while in 2015 they added 153,309 million US dollars against 74,282 million dollars in 2006.

All of these numbers illustrate the outflow or flight of capital, a process that has been increasing year after year amid a depreciation of the peso, low growth and recession, high inflation, a pandemic-aggravated shutdown, and restrictions on trade. activity, the increase in informality and the increase in poverty of a growing part of Argentines. It was also a defensive attitude against the regulatory explosions – the well-known legal insecurity – of the various governments, from weighting of deposits, mandatory exchange of bonds, corralitus, shares, etc.

Of course, the exchange rate rush that punishes Argentines from time to time is another great incentive to dollarize savings.

In 2016, recycling was promoted that managed to regularize just over 100,000 million dollars. Between the leak of confidential information and the increase in tax rates, a scenario has arisen that encourages the safeguarding of savings outside the Argentine legislation, even if conveniently declared before the AFIP.

Returning to the first quarter of this year, another 79,334 million dollars correspond to portfolio investments (financial assets) and 42,895 million dollars to direct investments, such as assets, properties and real estate – the case of Miami, Uruguay – or other interests in the ‘external.

These INDEC data derive from foreign currency trading movements in the banking and financial system, from inflows and outflows of funds and capital that are processed through the Central Bank, and from data provided by foreign banks and entities regarding ownership, placements or assets that Argentines have in their countries and estimates of the movements of funds, as would be the case with foreign tourism.