The reasons for climbing the blue.
In two days, the blue dollar went up by thirteen pesos and reached $ 239. With few transactions and many priceless “caves” in the face of the enormous level of uncertainty facing the market, the informal expresses the temperature of a turbulent market and brings the gap with the wholesaler above 90%.
Why does blue scale? There are five reasons this jump occurs almost in mid-2022.
The leap of inflation
The blue dollar has risen 15% so far this year, less than half the increase in inflation over the same period. The alarms raised in recent days were the result of this leap concentrated so far in June. After a quiet summer that lasted until May, where alternative dollars barely moved, this month blue went from $ 206 to $ 239 and woke up the usual ghosts of currency racing.
But even with this rise, the blue continues to run from behind. “What’s happening with the dollar is a logical phenomenon of reorganization to inflation that hasn’t stopped while these dollars have been stuck for six months, “said economist Ricardo Delgado, of Analytica.
The highest demand for foreign currency
Despite the record harvest, which it has already brought more than 16 billion dollars So far this year the supply of foreign exchange has not been sufficient to cover the demand. Higher energy imports, higher spending on overseas tourism and strong demand from importers to hedge against a possible devaluation explain why dollars are not enough.
In this context, the Central Bank fails to buy foreign currency. So far this year it has been just over $ 800 million, when in the same period of 2021 he had bagged $ 6.5 billion. The strengthening of stocks in the face of ample demand causes some of those pesos to go to alternative dollars.
The new import restrictions
With the new measures announced this week, medium and large importing companies will have a limit on accessing Central Bank dollars. To pay for everything that exceeds 5% of what is imported in 2021, they must obtain their dollars, through financing, until October 1, when the need to import energy should decrease.
This has strengthened the clamp on imports and redirected the demand for foreign currency towards alternative dollars, such as blue and contado con liqui, which triggered prices.
The escalation of contacts with liqui
On Tuesday the county arrived with liqui, the dollar that companies access $ 250. This dollar manages 10 times the volume of the blue dollar, which is approaching $ 5 million a day. And it serves as a reference for the informal: when the countryside with liqui is shot, the blue follows in his footsteps, while keeping his distance.
“Financial dollars have resumed upward readjustment as amid the tighter import restrictions the search for coverage is enhanceda dynamic that could continue to put pressure on the gap as long as these factors remain in place, “said economist Gustavo Ber.
The low credibility of the government
In a government with increasingly marked internal tensions and with Vice President Cristina Kirchner focusing her criticism on Miguel Angel Pesce and Minister Martín Guzmán, jumps of alternative exchange rates are on the agenda.
With prices soaring and great difficulties in meeting the goals set by the IMF agreement in the second half of the year, when the dollar supply falls sharply, the new measures fail to convey confidence.
On Monday, both President Alberto Fernández and Guzmán distanced themselves from the statements of Cristina, who argues that the fiscal deficit is not linked to inflation.
“The heart of the problem is not the dollar but the fiscal deficit“, emphasized the economist Camilo Tiscornia.” Given the shortage of foreign exchange in the coming months, in addition to the impact that import restrictions and shortages will have on inflation, the government will have to make a decision to prevent this from happening“stressed Delgado.
AQ
Annabella Quiroga
Source: Clarin
