We must spend the winter: they estimate that the outflow of dollars for energy imports will decrease in the second half of the year

After a semester of large energy imports, the government estimates a fall in the outflow of dollars so for the second half of the year. In any case, there is one variable that surpasses the officials: the price of oil depends on external factorslike the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its aftermath.

Final numbers for June are still missing, but energy imports are estimated to have been intermediate US $ 6,000 million and US $ 6,500 million in the first half of the year. The annual figure would close around $ 9.5 billion. This would make the second half of the year a bit “lighter” in dollar outflows. You have to spend the winter.

Between January and May, 4,600 million dollars were allocated for the import of gas, diesel and fuel oil, according to official data. June was a busy month for Energy Argentina (Enarsa)for the purchase of LNG and gas from Bolivia, while YPF it was also active in the acquisition of diesel oil, or petroleum to refine it and convert it into that fuel.

Official sources estimate energy imports in June to be around $ 2,000 million. If added to what has already been done, the first semester would exceed 6,500 million dollars. “That number can change, because there are transactions ordered in June that will be paid for in July”, relativizes a consultant who follows the commercial operations.

There are purchases which were agreed in June, but the delivery of which will be made in July. This will happen with the purchase of 11 ships – for US $ 640 million – to be delivered between July and August by Energía Argentina, the former Enarsa. The payment would fall in the second half.

The three largest importers this year are Energía Argentina, Cammesa and YPF. It’s a similar composition to 2021. The difference is that energy prices have risen a lot. With the same amount, the sums disbursed they are up to four times more.

It is estimated that Energía Argentina has yet to go out and look for 10 more “charges”, and the aforementioned purchase is still pending. In total, it would be around $ 1,300 million in the second part of the year, to which must be added the gas that is brought from Bolivia.

Energía Argentina has calculated to bring 50 ships this year. Of that total, there are about 30 that would already be included in the first half. The rest would be for the second. The company’s annual budget for this line would range from $ 3,500 million to $ 4,000 million, making it one of the largest applicants for dollars.

In the case of the YPF, everything indicates that there are several purchases ahead of it, due to the plight of the diesel. Although it has already imported these fuels and oil for refining, there are other expenses to come.

“In the next 45 days YPF will import 10 ships for a total of almost 500 thousand cubic meters of diesel. According to the provisional schedule, 2 ships will arrive this week, 5 in July and 3 in August, “the company reported.

The oil company would pay nearly $ 450 million for those ten ships, according to analysts’ calculations. The YPF will allocate $ 100 million this week, but $ 350 million will remain for the second half.

For YPF, diesel imports are in deficit. Even if the prices have gone up 30% ship that product at a loss to gas stations. In order not to lose silver, you should trade it at double the current price.

camesa, the company that manages the electricity system, also imports fuel. They are for thermal production. When there is no gas, the company uses fuel oil for turbines. That decision is more onerous, according to rumors in the power generation sector.

In March, when the international situation began to show high energy prices, Cammesa anticipated the purchase of fuels. What it usually does in the winter months, it did in the fall. In that way, it was restocked for the first part of the year. It was a combined strategy with Enarsa. Cammesa went shopping while Enarsa was planning.

In June, Cammesa received three diesel tankers and was expected to pay for another four.

Although the bulk of the purchases to be delivered in July and early August are almost closed, there are still gas and fuel deliveries to be defined. They are those corresponding to the rest of August and September.

the barrel of oil Brent – the reference for the whole world, excluding the United States – is $ 115. These days there have been statements from CEOs of major oil companies that they expected higher prices. They explain it in a “saturated” refining capacity and ask to replace deliveries from Russia (European countries and those aligned with the United States have decided to stop buying it in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine).