In Montevideo, the dollars that come from the harvest add to the weight.
Who could. While in Argentina the government had to close the exchange to stop imports and free (blue and alternative) dollars are trading at record values, in Uruguay they have exactly the opposite problem: the dollar is very cheap.
In fact, what is getting stronger is the Uruguayan currency. the dollar is at 39 pesos, 12.4% less than at the beginning of the year. And, according to the agency Bloombergbeat the Brazilian real like the best performing currency in the region.
The strengthening of the Uruguayan currency is unnerving exporters, who are losing competitiveness, according to the newspaper. Village. also to tourism industrywhich has been hit by the pandemic, and sees how the country is it gets more expensive every day for Argentines.
Commodity exporters, favored by high international prices due to the war between Ukraine and Russia, managed to compensate says the decline in margins due to the fall of the dollar, with the high prices of products Village.
“In general terms, agribusiness has a much more favorable trend in export prices than the rest of the industrial sectors, such as chemicals, auto parts, pharmaceuticals, vehicles, leather (despite being in the agri-food sector), plastics. These are those who suffer the most from the drop in the exchange rateSebastián Pérez, economic adviser of the Chamber of Industries (CIU), told the Uruguayan daily.
On the other side, Among the winners are the Uruguayan importers, a situation that could benefit Argentine exporters. Even consumers who have more imported goods.
But the national costs, measured in dollars, are becoming more expensive for everyone. That is, the payment of electricity, labor (especially if intensive), taxes and freight, among other services.
Why is the dollar falling in Uruguay and rising in Argentina?
To explain why the dollar falls in Uruguay, analysts provide an argument that applies to most countries in the region, but not for Argentinawhere the dollar moves with its own logic and is under the control of the Central Bank.
“Uruguay’s monetary policy is still weak. We must look for the reason for the dollar’s decline in high commodity prices is in the good time for the export sector, and not in monetary policy, which also plays in the same direction as the strengthening of the peso or the lowering of the dollar ”, assures the economist Agustín Iturralde, director of the Center for Development Studies (CED) of Uruguay.
By increasing international demand for products and selling more, more dollars enter the economy and the price of the currency decreases, due to the supply-demand ratio. In Argentina, the dollars that come in go to pay for imported energy, interest, tourism dollars and goods.
But in Uruguay and in the countries of emerging economies who are exporters of raw materials or commodities that are drastically increasing their prices, the situation is different.
“All those countries have had appreciation of your currency. The rule in South America, since the beginning of the year, has been more oriented towards the appreciation of local currencies. Perhaps in Uruguay, with a little more strength ”, she reiterated.
“It’s not that the dollar is falling, but that the Uruguayan peso is increasing“, He added.
Meanwhile, Uruguayans are also trying to control inflation. “The most controversial thing is that, in the fight against inflation, the rise in rates exacerbates the fall of the dollar,” Iturralde said.
It is that the increase in interest rates can generate a raising of capital, which would also depreciate the value of the dollar.
NEITHER
Source: Clarin
