In April, economic activity resumed after the decline in March and therefore accumulates in the first 4 months of the year an increase of 5.7% compared to the same months of 2021. Compared to April 2021, the increase is 5.1%, according to INDEC’s monthly estimate of economic activity (EMAE).

With these data, economic activity returned to the levels of December 2021 and stood above those prior to the pandemic and the recession that began in 2018.

With the exception of agriculture, compared to the same month of 2021, 15 of the 16 sectors of activity that make up the EMAE recorded increases in April, including those of Fishing (+ 68.0%), Hotels and restaurants (+40, 1%) and Exploitation of mines and quarries (+ 17.2%), all sectors hard hit by the pandemic and the recession.

Due to its greater weight in the economy, the wholesale, retail and repair sector (+ 6.7% yoy) had the largest impact on the year-over-year change in the EMAE, followed by the manufacturing industry. (+4.7%).

“For its part, the Agriculture, animal husbandry, hunting and forestry sector was the only one to record a decline in the year-over-year comparison in April: production contracted by 7.0% and subtracted 0.8 percentage points from the year-over-year variation of the EMAE ”, as reported by INDEC.

The question is what can happen taking this into account the international context against the shortage of dollarsimport restrictions, diesel supply difficulties and higher domestic and foreign inflation.

According to the Production Studies Center (CEP XXI) of the Ministry of Productive Development, “the advanced industrial activity index developed by CEP XXI (which takes energy consumption based on CAMMESA) grew by 8.1% year on year in May, with consumption in the factories of the most important industries (except tobacco, cars and other means of transport). Compared to the same month in 2019 it grew by 4.1%. In the seasonally adjusted data compared to April, industrial activity decreased 1.5% (the third in the first five months of the year) “.

In turn, in construction “private data for May suggest a continuity of growth for that month: cement consumption increased by 24.5% on an annual basis and by 12.8% compared to 2019, registering the highest level for a month of May at least since 2004. The Construya index, for its part, grew by 16.8% year on year and by 23.6% compared to May 2019 “.

The latest IMF projection for this year is that Argentina’s economy will grow by 4%.

Meanwhile, among other things, the LCG Consultant underlines that “a possibility of public spending limited by the agreement with the IMF and greater efforts to support the debt dynamics will hardly allow to stimulate the economy as happened last year”.

Consequently, LCG expects “a slowdown in activity towards the second half of the year, with an average annual growth of between 2% and 2.5% for 2022, mainly favored by the statistical brake left by 2021 (3 ,2%)”.