Miguel Pesce resists in the Central Bank, talks to the banks and analyzes an exchange rate and a public holiday

Martín Guzmán’s hasty departure from the Ministry of Economy on Saturday afternoon and the delay in defining his successor and the economic program he will carry out were the prelude to a Monday that promises to be maximum financial stress, with dollars and debt securities under pressure.

The delay in making decisions is a bad sign for the market, agree several specialists consulted by Clarione.

In this scenario, the government has a temporary advantage: This Monday is a holiday in the United States. therefore what happens in the local market will not have an external reference.

Dollar bonds and country risk will not workjust like Argentine stocks in New York, hence the market reaction it might be delayed.

In the midst of the massive wave of resignations within the government’s economic team, Miguel Angel Pesce’s name has remained intact at the helm of the Central Bank. The head of the monetary authority spoke on the phone this Sunday with Alberto Fernández and with some other officials.

Banks have also been contacted. with whom he tried to handle a action plan to contain the tension on exchange rates that can be seen for this Monday.

As learned from this newspaper, the financial entities have asked the president of the Central Bank that Guzmán’s successor continue with the objectives and program agreed with the IMF.

According to sources close to the talks, too no public holiday is defined for the first day of the week and the measurement would be taken only if the time comes to open the markets without the President making a decision.

“Banks always before these definitions are in a state of observation on how financial variables will evolve. Banks are preparing for what might happenbut it is not estimated that there will be a very strong reaction from the exchange rate, “said a banking source.

However, the consensus is also that the hasty departure of Guzmán and his entire economic team and the delays in deciding not only his replacement, but also the direction the economy will take from now on, it will generate pressure on the foreign exchange market, particularly on parallel dollars.

Already during the weekend a significant jump in the prices of so-called “cryptodollars”, the price of stablecoins that can be purchased in pesos and which follow the evolution of the US bill. On the Lemon platform, at the close of this note, $ 281 was paid to be able to purchase a USDT.

For Martín Polo, head of Cohen’s strategy, the market it will react to the weakness of the ruling coalition and the fear of what the successor’s roadmap in Economics will be. “The dismissal of Guzmán, from the point of view of the government, he is given to be an Orthodox ministerbut the very lack of credibility it has had on the market lately is precisely why did not make any adjustments“, he has declared.

“The public finances are in sight, there is a deterioration of all the variables: country risk at 2,500 points, inflation with a floor at 5%, a BCRA that has no alternative but to close the securities and expand the loans to the Treasury Polo he stressed. “I don’t see an encouraging scenario, since it is very difficult for those who come to obtain consent to do all the things that Guzmán could not“.

For his part, Pablo Repetto, head of research at Aurum Valores warned: “Until now the debt market was very personalized in the figure of Guzmán and his team. On the one hand, the segment of debt in pesos, where there has already been over-saturation and growing mistrust in recent weeks. But even the debt negotiation with the Fund has so far been linked to Guzmán.

Repetto said that without certainty on the path that its replacement will take, both debt segments could falter and that the The rumors of a possible exchange and bank holidays would only give a sign of panic for savers and investors.

The blue dollar ended the week lower on Friday, after jumping $ 13 in the past five rounds, and closed at $ 238. Financial dollars were also down a notch, after rising more than 20% in June and closed the MEP dollar at $ 248 and settlement cash at $ 252.

The country risk, which had arrived in the middle of the week overcome the 2,500 point barrier, it had dropped to 2,374 units.

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