Due to the exchange gap, producers delay the sale of soybeans and it is the lowest in the last 19 years

Despite the good international price, agricultural producers they are delaying soybean sales due to the country’s economic uncertainty. Basically, it is due to the exchange gap that exists – and which has widened today – between the official dollar – to which the producers sell – and the alternative dollar.

According to the latest official data as of June 22, producers have marketed 19.09 million tons of soybeans this year, 44% of the production which reached 43.8 million tons, against 22.9 million tons of the last campaign (50% of the harvest)

Beyond what was negotiated, only 25% of the production was priced, while last year over 35% already had a fixed price.

As analyzed by the Borsa del Rosario, in this campaign there is the lowest oilseed sales of the last 19 years in absolute terms. “You have to go back to the 2003/04 campaign to find a lower record measured in tonnes for this date of the year,” the entity said in a recently released report.

In the case of corn, there are no major differences compared to the previous year. The commercial volume of the cereal up to 22 June reached 30.3 million tons (61%) against 31 million tons (59%) in the same period.

Ariel Tejera, Grassi brokerage analyst, said that in Argentina, the producer “saves” on soybeans. “This is a mechanism for staying dollars,” she said.

The analyst explained that the sales decisions will be linked to financial needs, the evolution of bean prices, relative prices compared to other products and, in particular, the evolution of the exchange gap.

“The larger the gap, the higher the expectation of devaluation, the lower the incentive to sell,” said David Miazzo, chief economist at Argentina’s Agricultural Development Foundation (FADA).

The the exchange gap between the official dollar and the alternative dollars has widened after knowing the departure of Martín Guzmán and the entry of Silvina Batakis at the helm of the Ministry of Economy.

The FOB price of soybeans quoted this Monday at $ 597, and taking into account the value of the MEP dollar which closed at 270 pesos and withholdings (33%), the producer receives only 30% of the total, or 180 dollars.

“The producer is at a crossroads. Selling to take advantage of the high international prices that could fall or remain in order to capture a future devaluation of the official exchange “, analyzes the economist.” It will probably end up giving what is given every year, which is sold as it is needs capital in circulation to meet last season’s debts and pay for supplies and rents for next season, “he agreed.

Precisely, On this Monday, producers significantly lowered their cereal sales. According to the official grain system, farmers sold 118,000 tons of cereals – 56,000 tons of corn and 38,000 tons of soybeans – compared with 240,000 tons sold on Monday. It was also below the rest of the previous week’s days, which had been over 300,000 tons.