Businessmen and economists are demanding “political consensus” to calm the markets

What should I do Silvia Batakis reverse the financial volatility that began last week with the new restrictions of the Central Bank, “spiraling” with the resignation of Martín Guzmán, and received this Monday with a parallel dollar that touched 280 pesos?

The measures and the political direction proposed by a group of entrepreneurs and economists consulted by Clarione converge on an initial claim of political consensus among the three main referents that make up the Frente de Todos. Another coincidence was that the room for maneuver that the new inhabitant of the Palacio de Hacienda will have will continue to be very limited. And that any measures that will be adopted must be managed under the umbrella of a political truce.

“It is necessary first of all that all members of the ruling coalition clearly support the measures. Secondly, that the new management will correct the excesses of the previous one in fiscal and monetary matters, so as not to aggravate them“, She said Daniele Artana, from FAITHFUL. The economist was skeptical that this will happen in the short term.

“It will take time because there is a great distrust generated by the declarations of uncompromising Kirchnerism on the causes of inflation and the alleged benefits of the fiscal imbalance. But there is no other way, the lack of adaptation ends the disorganized and regressive adjustment produced by inflationArtana added.

From one of the country’s leading businesses, they admitted that they were extremely “careful” about Batakis’ guidelines, but above all they were honest about the lack of signals after a “long” weekend without the Minister of Economy.

“I think it all comes down to the word expectation. We consider it positive that you have proposed it will respect what has been agreed with the International Monetary Fund“said one of its leaders.

The head of the Industrial Union, Daniel Funes from Riojahe had also stated that Batakis must have “political support” to address his administration and had asked to “seek macroeconomic stabilization with fiscal balance and sound monetary policy”.

In the Industrial Union, Central Bank restrictions on the sale of dollars to import inputs for production have been shouting loudly, even for those imports that enter for later re-export. Funes de Rioja asked Batakis “a productivist and clear support for exportsin addition to addressing the issue of importing inputs and decisions on energy matters “.

Orlando Castanihead of the Association of Metallurgical Industrialists (ADIMRA) used not very different terms: “We wish the new minister the greatest success because we know that achieve a reduction in the rate of inflation, greater macroeconomic stability and less uncertainty about exchange ratesit will be beneficial to all Argentines, “said the businessman.

Castellani also asked for greater political consensus: “We need the joint work of all the Executive and Legislative Power, with the business sector and workers to provide solutions and proposals that allow us to have the country we deserve”.

In a body that brings together several multinationals, they stressed that economic policy should be “the opposite of the ’70s-style interventionism we’re seeingwith projects that aim to welcome 750,000 new pensioners who have not paid contributions, or universal assignments without consideration “.

Much cruder was the analysis of two consultants, ABC and Equilibriumwhich outlined a panorama of worse economic conditions in the short and medium term. “The profile, the trajectory and the vision of Batakis they don’t seem like the right ones to bolster your credibility“, indicates an Abeceb report published this Monday. And the scenario they present does not arouse optimism.

“In economic matters, the scenario has worsened. If before Guzmán’s resignation we were three steps from the precipice, now we are two. The inflationary risk and the risk of devaluation have increased significantly. At the beginning of July we are witnessing a” very strong bullish repricing ” (aggravated by the crisis this weekend) e the likelihood of the year ending with triple-digit inflation has significantly increased“.

For Martin Rapetti, of Equilibra, during the Guzmán administration, this year’s fiscal imbalance was heading towards the equivalent of 3% of gross product this year, against the 2.5% agreed with the IMF, also hampered by the lack of support for Kirchnerism and the impossibility of deciding on tariffs or energy policy. “The appointment of Batakis did not solve either of the two problems. We see no reason to think this is a substantial change from what brought us here, “the Rapetti report stressed.