The political crisis and the hot dollar fuel fears of rising inflation

Among the many open fronts that the new Minister of Economy has, Silvina Batakis, inflation leads the ranking of the agenda with characteristics of urgency. It happens that, in recent days, dollar rise It has alerted industrialists and traders. Under the topic of “No reference price”some companies have decided not to sell their products for fear of not being able to restock their shares against the rising dollar. Those who did, first applied important observations.

These price movements so far in July add to the inertia that inflation has had, which has accumulated 29.3% so far this year through May. In the next few days, INDEC will announce that the June figure, already excluded, will be higher than that of May: it will be closer to 5.4%according to economists, eliminating the possibility of the slowdown predicted by the government. That 5.4% is already seen as a “floor” for July.

The uncertainty about sales and prices was found essentially in items such as clothing, footwear, construction and gastronomy. In supermarkets, however, the price changes were those authorized by the Ministry of Commerce, in the order of 4-5%. Appliances were the most in demand over the weekend, particularly those included in the official “Now 12” program since then quotas became the main magnet for consumers eager to beat inflation.

“In the last 72 hours, we feel great uncertainty on what will happen to us in the short term “, says Fabian Castillo, president of the Federation of Businesses of the City of Buenos Aires (FECOBA), who talked about the company situation: “Without reference prices, traders cannot sell. They don’t know how much they will replace the goods “, He says.

In this scenario, there are the shops of clothing, shoe shops, construction sites for materials and appliances, according to the manager. “After the Central Bank action last week (on import restrictions),” there was a collapse in commodities: this is where the shortage of stocks started, “he said. According to Castillo, the industry commercial arose from the debacle of the pandemic, when 50,000 shops closed throughout the country, which is why today “an anti-inflationary plan that gives predictability is urgently needed”.

Jorge Sanvitale, director of an SME providing electrical engineering and assembly services, commented on his business: “since last week, As soon as the dollar started to fluctuate significantly, there were suppliers who started sending out new price lists ». “Some of them have base price lists that include some discounts. Discounts that have been canceled, with which there is an increase in the real price of the material, ”she explained.

“From this weekend, and until Monday morning, we discover that the factories that produce the materials we use, or most of them, sales have been suspended and the price lists have been invalidated as they await the new announcements and what is the path that will be taken to define the values ​​of their products, ”he said.

Petrol prices have not been touched at the service stations, but: “some oil companies have begun to do so shifting diesel prices, in some cases increasing the value at the pump by up to 8%. The increases have not yet been reflected in CABA service stations or in the province of Buenos Aires, but they can be seen in vending machines within the country, ”reports the Surtidores.com website.

On the contrary, in the products of massive consumption, the question of prices and supply inertia followed of the last few months. “In stock items; There are no major supply problems and prices are discussed to the same extent as they have been. Perhaps the Perfumery and Cleaning category is more critical because they have more import supplies and in stock, some specific cases due to packaging. But it’s a smaller proportion, ”commented a supermarket source.

Speaking of demand, another source linked to retail commented that “the movements of the last few days have not so much to do with changes in imports but with the rise in the exchange rate”. the tax is the key factor and it was durable goods (such as household appliances) that were sold with financing, those chosen by the people to make the “difference”, he analyzed.

The food, Meanwhile, they are rising above the price level if we analyze the first five months of the year (33.7%) only in June they increased by an average of 4.7% according to the measurement of the EcoGo consultancy. In keeping with the survey on a basket of 21 products, the Free Consumers recorded an increase of 4.84% in the same period and from 1 January that basket accumulated an increase of 34.20%.

The economy minister, in his first statements, said about the approach to inflation, which will summon businessmen to maintain price baskets and work on production costs.