Miguel Angel Pesce, president of the Central Bank
Prior to Martin Guzman’s resignation on June 27 and 30, 2022 private consultants have estimated that this year inflation will be 76% (3.4 points higher than the previous month’s survey forecast). Those who best predict this variable for the short term expect an even higher average inflation of 79.2% (4.1 points more than in the May survey).
The data comes from the REM, Survey of Market Expectations, released this Friday by the Central Bank and does not take into account the escalation of inflation in recent days. The same happens for the rest of the forecasts given the adverse changes in the national and international context.
The forecast of 26 local and international consultants and research centers and 12 financial institutions estimated that inflation in June (which INDEC will release on Thursday 14) would be 5.2%, which would fall to 4.8% in July. and in the rest of the months (August-November) it would drop to 4.5 / 4.2% to close with 4.3% in December 2022.
What happened with all the increases this week already signals that the estimate for July and for the following months has been exceeded by reality. Many of the same consultants who they predicted 4.8% for July a week ago, now they predict 7/8%, due to the surge in inflation following the resignation of Martín Guzmán. And there is no shortage of analysts who do not want to risk a monthly estimate based only on a week of price increases and because, moreover, in many items it was not possible to carry out transactions due to lack of prices given the political, economic and financial uncertainty situation.
In relation to the official dollar (nominal wholesale exchange rate ($ / US $) monthly average of working days) the same thing happens, given the very high volatility of the alternative dollars and the pressure for an official devaluation of the peso.
The official wholesale dollar stood at $ 122.74 per dollar in June 2022. “The REM response forecast indicates a monthly 4.5% increase to $ 128.23 per dollar in July 2022. Aside. his, analyst projection for December 2022 was $ 159.59 per dollar ($ 1.62 per dollar compared to the previous survey). Therefore, the nominal exchange rate change expected by REM participants is 56.6% year-on-year for December 2022, ”the Central Bank report states.
For their part, the EMN participants estimated a real change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2022 of 3.2%, a decrease of 0.1 points compared to the value contemplated in the previous survey.
On the foreign trade front, analysts predict a reduction in the trade surplus, the only source of income in foreign currency, without taking into account the restrictive measures of recent days in terms of purchases from abroad.
Therefore, they estimated that in June 2022 exports (FOB) of goods would have amounted to 7,898 million dollars (22 million dollars less than the previous REM projections) while they forecast that they will converge to 6,835 million dollars in December 2022. Annual expected values were placed at $ 87,722 million for 2022 ($ 1,318 million more than forecast a month ago).
But imports (CIF) of goods would have amounted to $ 7,421 million in the sixth month of 2022, while the expected annual values were $ 77,550 million ($ 2,550 million more than the value forecast a month earlier).
Source: Clarin
