Silvina Batakis puts it first: this week the inflation data comes out and from here September looks for 3 billion dollars

Already with his team of collaborators appointed and in office (the meetings took place over the weekend), the Minister of Economy, Silvina Batakis, is preparing to face the first challenges of his administration in the coming hours. The first race of the month opens on Wednesday and June inflation will be known on Thursday.

Both issues (indebtedness in pesos and prices) explain not only Guzmán’s fortune (and his departure) but also that of Batakis.

As for the former, the former minister raced to Olivos on the Thursday before his resignation, the very day the last race in June ended. Even with the help of the Central Bank in an earlier exchange, he had achieved a 102% debt rollover. In January it was 149%. Guzmán’s spreadsheets indicated that to close the financial program with the IMF (the deficit can only be financed by issuing 1%) a refinancing rate of 140% of this debt was required. June was the third consecutive month which gave 100%.

Guzmán told the president that he had to change this trend yes or yes. For this the Central Bank had to do what it has finally implemented this week: renew less Leliq so that these instruments do not compete with Treasuries and market pesos go to the Economy, improving the result of the July auction. “Martín called me 40 minutes before his tweet”said one of his collaborators present that Thursday afternoon at the Treasury, seeing the results of the competition and before the minister went to speak with the President.

Batakis takes up the theme again this week with Pesce’s apparent “collaborative reaction”. In any case, the minister anticipated that “tension” with the pesos debt. This Wednesday will be the first race of the month. The second will be on July 27th. They accrue $ 502,000 million in the month. Almost everything will be in the second call.

A recent report from Quantum, Daniel Marx’s consulting firm, paints a good picture of what Guzmán saw coming. And this now awaits Batakis. “The difficulties in financing the cash requirement in pesos are a warning at the beginning of this third quarter. The main maturities of Treasury debt securities for the July-September period amount to nearly $ 2 trillion (2.7% of GDP). Half of these are concentrated in September. If we add an estimated fiscal deficit for the quarter of $ 900,000 million (1.2% of GDP) the total cash requirement in pesos would amount to $ 2.8 trillion (3.9% of GDP) in that period ”.

Ricardo Delgado, director of Analytica, says the key will be in September because that’s where most of the deadlines are concentrated. “And almost everything will be in the hands of the public sector. It will be necessary to see what ANSES does through the Sustainability Guarantee Fund“.

Apparently, Batakis is clear on the subject. The Secretary of Finance, Eduardo Setti, has more experience in knowledge of the public sector portfolio than of banks. He worked in the audit and in the FGS of ANSES.

Finally, the question of the price. This Thursday Indec will publish the CPI for June. Despite this being an inflation made in Guzmán and preceding the noisy departure of the minister, the market will be attentive to his reaction.

The Broda study estimates 5.2% for June (May gave 5.1%) and for LCG it would be 5.5%. “We are already seeing high-frequency indicators that monthly inflation for July will be close to 7%,” they tell the government.

Broda, who until 40 days ago spoke of inflation at 70%, now puts it “85% plan”. And there are already 90% predictions. And in the last three months, the annualized rate is 100%.

“If the program resists – says Studio Broda – it is with more inflation, more gaps and more deceleration”.

For Marina Dal Poggetto, director of Eco Go, monthly inflation could be at the gates of the leap. Was it 4%, then 6% and now it will be 8%?

Be that as it may, Batakis’ debut this week may be the best thing seen in his handling of inflation. As Kevin Spacey said in American Beauty starting his day in the morning. “This is the highlight of the day. From now on, everything that comes is down the ravine ”.