The silobags are full: so far only 27% of the entire harvest has been sold, while the norm would have been 45%.
Miguel Angel Pesce, the president of the central bank, said almost a month ago that the producers still had the silobags the equivalent of $ 2.5 billion in unsold soybeans. He was looking for a way to encourage them with new financial tools so that they liquidate the beans and start the chain so that they enter the country much needed dollars.
At that time, the gap between the official dollar and the blue was less than 100% and Martín Guzmán was still in charge of the Ministry of Economy. Thirty days later, the crisis triggered by the brake on imports first and the resignation of the head of the Treasury later caused the gap to peak at 140%, then drop to 130%.
The producers not only did not sell more, as Pesce wanted, but also They reduced what they were liquidating by 32%.“It is observed a very slow pace marketing of soybeans and a significant decline in recent weeks, which has at least partly to do with macroeconomic volatility (exchange rate) “, indicated IERAL, of the Mediterranean Foundation in its latest report.
The work indicates this sell nearly 800 thousand tons weekly soy in May, it reached 540 thousand in the last 4 weeks of June and the first of July a contraction of 32% in volumes sold.
Also, in late June only 27% of the harvest had been sold soy (11.4 million tons), when historically by that date this percentage is 45%. 73% of production remains to be liquidated, the highest figure in the last 15 campaigns.
The same doesn’t happen with corn, which maintains a normal rhythm sale. By the end of June, 25 million tons of maize in the 2021/22 cycle had been marketed, about 50% of the expected harvest.
As explained by IERAL’s work, producers can sell their grains before they have them, when they are harvesting them or months later. The exact time of sale depends on several factors, from need of the entrepreneur (if you have to pay input or debts), the degree of risk aversionthe macroeconomic context (the price of the dollar and soybeans, rates) and the expectations.
It is expected that the sale will be delayed in a process of depreciation of the currency and negative rates against inflation, says work done by Juan Manuel Garzon.
Over the past 31 days, the settlement dollar has risen by 31%, while the official dollar has only risen by 4.6%, bringing the exchange rate gap from 87% to 133%with a peak of almost 140% on 8 June (a record level since the new exchange rate came into effect).
“The manual says so the greater the exchange rate gap and with an increasing trend, the expectations of devaluation increaseand it is foreseeable that all transactions involving the disposal of foreign currency or an asset whose value is directly linked to the exchange rate will slow down, until a certain stability is recovered. “Experience indicates that exchange gaps are closing more “the official dollar goes up” than “the free dollar goes down”, he explains.
“Any delay in the marketing of cereals slows down export operations, the main destination of these raw materials, and delays the entry of foreign currency into the foreign exchange market; in a context of great volatility and distrust of economic policy, this generates further pressure on the foreign exchange market and the price of the currency abroad “, develops the relationship.,
“What you have to ask yourself is because dollars are not enough in a scenario of excellent international prices of raw materials and a relatively good harvest “, questions IERAL. Because there is so much demand for dollars at all levels of the economy and so much aversion to keeping the pesos.
“The answers are not found in the dollar market or in the decisions of private agents, but in the pesos market and in economic policy decisionsin the great imbalance that has been generated in the weight market from to excessive issuance to finance excess public spendingboth in the present (fiscal deficit) and in the past (treasury debt) “, he concludes.
NEITHER
Source: Clarin
