Diversifying suppliers will not be enough: the European Union will have to reduce its demand for gas faster than today to accumulate reserves, if it wants to survive the winter without Russian gas, the director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), “worried about the next few months”.
“We should not count only on non-Russian gas resources: these will simply not be sufficient in volume to replace deliveries from Russia,” Fatih Birol stresses, in an article published by his organization. “Even if supplies from Norway and Azerbaijan are flowing at full capacity, even if deliveries from North Africa are close to their level of last year, and even if LNG flows growth maintains its first-half rate.”
Moscow has already started turning off the tap and Europeans fear a complete halt in deliveries in reaction to sanctions imposed against the invasion of Ukraine. For Fatih Birol, this is “a red alert” for the EU. The economist points to “progress” in freeing itself from Russian dependence, “but not enough, especially on the demand side, to prevent Europe from finding itself in an incredibly precarious situation today.”
Emergency measures
According to an IEA analysis, the continent should store an additional 12,000 million cubic meters of gas within three months (enough to fill 130 methane tankers), to take refuge with 90% full stocks. But this also means that the Nord Stream pipeline, the main delivery route across the Baltic Sea and currently undergoing maintenance, will be restarted by the Russians on Thursday, and this until early October. Otherwise, the situation would be even more complicated. But “we cannot rule out a complete stop,” says Fatih Birol.
Given this, the IEA urgently recommends measures such as auction systems for the sale of gas to industrialists, temporarily favoring other sources of electricity, such as coal or oil, or even smoothing out peaks in gas and electricity consumption through greater European coordination . The demand for electricity can be reduced by establishing air conditioning standards, for example, taking into account public buildings, adds Fatih Birol, who calls on “governments to prepare the population” through campaigns, because “every action counts. Gestures simple as turning down the heating a few degrees can save the same amount of gas that Nord Stream provides during a winter”.
Source: BFM TV
