The interruption of Russian gas deliveries to Europe would reduce the value of German GDP by 1.5% in 2022, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts published on Wednesday, amid fears in Berlin of a complete shutdown. of flows through the Nord Stream. pipeline
“If we add direct and indirect effects and uncertainties, closing the gas tap would reduce GDP by 1.5% in 2022, 2.7% in 2023 and 0.4% in 2024”, compared to a scenario in which Germany remains supplied with gas, the institution said in a report. The loss of “accumulated GDP between 2022 and 2024 would be 4.8% compared to 2020 GDP,” added the IMF.
“The Greatest Threat”
It is the “greatest threat” to the eurozone’s biggest economy, the IMF said. Germany was still buying 35% of its gas from Russia in early June, a figure that had risen to 55% before the war. Citing the absence of a turbine under maintenance in Canada, the Russian Gazprom reduced deliveries by 60% a few weeks ago through Nord Stream, the main pipeline that transports gas to Europe. A “pretext”, according to Berlin, which denounces a “political” decision and now fears that Moscow will not resume deliveries at the end of the annual work started last week. This maintenance should be completed on Thursday morning.
Even if it continues to receive Russian gas, growth in the German economy should nonetheless “be moderate in the coming quarters,” according to the IMF. This is explained in particular by the “weakness of the world economy” and the “bottlenecks” that weigh on the export industry, the pillar of the national economy. The IMF forecasts growth of 1.2% in 2022 and only 0.8% in 2023 for Germany.
At the same time, inflation, still driven by energy prices, is expected to “remain elevated for the next two years,” the IMF said. The institution forecasts a price increase in Germany of 7.7% in 2022 and 4.8% in 2023. A total closure of Russian gas could even increase these forecasts up to 2 points in 2022 and up to 3.5 points in 2023, he added.
Source: BFM TV
