Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered commodity prices and forced a redesign of Argentina’s trade balance forecasts. After the beginning of the year where the impact of drought on the countryside threatens to significantly reduce the excess $ 14.75 billion obtained in 2021, now the projections are slightly loose.

The war changed the equation and now analysts are estimating the trade balance for the year This is between US $ 13.8 billion and US $ 9 billion.

The Rosario Stock Exchange estimates that the yield will exceed $ 41 billion, thanks to rising international prices. This will be US $ 3,000 million than the previous campaign, despite the fact that measured in quantity, the yield is between 5 and 7% smaller due to the impact of the drought. But soybean prices of more than US $ 600 are enough to compensate for the lack of rain.

Based on the latest price changes, EcoGo expects a surplus of $ 13.8 billion. Economist Milagros Suardi said that “on the export side, we plan that foreign currency inflows from the agribusiness sector will be 5% higher than last year, or whatever, they will be near $ 38.5 billion“.

For EcoGo, the jump in international prices is more than compensation for the fall in the volume of soybeans and corn affected by the second consecutive year of the “La Niña” climatic phenomenon.

Efficient field performance will offset the increased cost of energy imports, from rising gas and LNG prices generated by the war. Suardi pointed out that even with the good news of a potential increase in the volume of gas imported from Bolivia, “energy imports are all around. $ 7 billiona significant decrease from the nearly US $ 11 billion we previously expected. “

Abeceb’s estimate would be excessive $ 12 billionan important amount but not enough due to Argentina’s foreign exchange needs.

In terms of the foreign exchange market this is a fairly generous surplus, but that doesn’t mean the market is loose. Demand for the dollar continues despite stocks. We believe that strict and the whole government will abide by the Monetary Fund, but always maintain exchange and trade restrictions, ”said Elisabet Bacigalupo, head of macro analysis for Latin America at Abeceb.

From the Equilibra consulting firm, Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina saw a reduction in the trade surplus of goods that would put it around. $ 9 billion. “The drought will generate lower volumes of corn, soybeans and its derivatives. At these prices, if we had volumes last year we would have US $ 10 billion more for agricultural money.”

For the economist, the rise of gas generated by the war “This will lead to energy imports that could double and that explains much of the reduction in surplus. Also the industrial products we import will have some kind of increase and they will reduce the balance. “

Another point to contend with is the services side “The deficit will worsen due to the return to normalcy of international tourism“.

From IERAL, Juan Manuel Garzón pointed out that agro-industrial exports will contribute US $ 44,500 million in 2022, an increase of approximately $ 6 billion compared to last year. “Although an adjustment in quantities is expected (-7%, weighted average), this is more than offset by higher international prices (24% year-on-year).”

Garzón suggests that imported fertilizer, which is also seeing an increase in its prices, should also be included in the equation. With a smaller yield “if consumption is reduced between 20% and 30% compared to last year, the charge to be paid for these inputs could increase between US $ 800 and US $ 1,200 million “.

With this increased spending, “agribusiness could generate an additional US $ 4.8-US $ 5.2 billion in net profit this year to deal with larger imports, including natural gas,” Garzón said.

But it also features that another problem to consider is the timing: Additional dollars from agribusiness will generate over the year, while heavier charges from imports of energy products will fall in the cold months.

The IERAL account provides an increase of between US $ 4.5 billion and US $ 5.7 billion in energy imports. “This is a figure that is quite similar to the increase in net agro-industrial exports. We will not earn many more dollars, nor will we lose many more dollars,” he slides.

Given the endless war, Bacigalupo stressed that the amount of trade surplus “is tied to the price of energy. If LNG rises by 10 dollars, spending on imports will increase by $ 1.3 billion more and the balance of trade will be lower.

AQ