Batakis looks for a signal from the IMF and Pesce refuses a division of the exchange

An incredulous smile from Silvina Batakis was enough to convey what her next steps will be to contain the endless currency crisis. In her team they have been consulting him in the last few hours if there would be any new announcements. This is what is being asked on the market and also by government officials outside the small negotiating table. His smile was enough make it clear that there will be no changes now, at least for now.

“Already on Saturday we started talking about the trip to Washington, for his part there will be no announcements,” they told the Ministry of Economy. The head of the Treasury arrived in the US capital on Sunday to meet with officials from the Treasury, the World Bank, Wall Street investors and multinational executives. The main course will be this Monday’s meeting, the first face to face, with the director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva.

Government excluding, for now, a split of the exchange rate, as had happened in the last few hours, and awaits an easing of tensions due to an alleged lower demand for energy imports. “The BCR it does not work in any exchange rate split scheme. It is to be hoped that starting this week the extra market pressure that has been experienced in the last few weeks will begin to ease, “they said from the entity.

Alberto Fernández tried to be tougher on Friday at Casa Rosada, where he secured him they will not “turn his arm.”“and aimed against those who” speculate with the dollar “and those who” keep 20,000 million dollars in the countryside. “Saturday would have ratified that position in the meeting he held with Cristina Kirchner. From that sector, Juliana Di Tullio asked that the ‘intervention by the police “at the door of each cave.

The minister’s bet is this the Fund’s signals serve to bring some calm to the markets, although analysts fear what might happen this Monday. On Friday, the blue dollar closed at $ 338 and the gap with the wholesaler has reached 160%, a slight correction after the doubling of the dollar for hospitality tourism and the limits for importers to hold Cedears announced at the weekend.

“The week ended quieter than Thursday, Thursday was difficult and given the two news that could concern this Monday (at the markets), Batakis’s trip to Washington and the meeting of Alberto and Cristina on Saturday, I don’t see a trend change since the last few weeks and for this Monday or the week, it is uncertainty awaiting some economic announcement“, emphasized the economist Fernando Marull, of FyMA.

Amid the lack of results, the President met Batakis and Pesce on Friday. It was about analyzing measures to stop foreign currency bleeding and put a cap on the dollar, but there are differences within the government that hinder decision-making. The only clear agreement, for the moment, is that of withstand a strong devaluation and forced like that of 2014, while signals of fiscal restriction are being sent.

The Executive is conditioned by the request for hardening promoted by Kirchnerism and by the official movements, as well as by the conservation of the grain in the field. “Pesce wants to resist, to cash in until the end of August and September, Massa tries to generate an incentive with agribusiness exporters to generate foreign currency and the other is a differentiated dollar for soybean producers”, summarizes the economic team.

In the export sector, they assure that it could liquidate these days up to $ 2 billion. Agriculture Minister Julián Domínguez will visit La Rural this week, in the midst of projects under discussion with grain farmers and despair over a lack of dollars. In June, the foreign currency settlement was US $ 3,815 million and this month it will be lower due to falling cereal prices.

The government is resisting with a reinforced dollar trap to lower demand for pesos and accelerating prices, all of which fuel the parallel exchange rate. Financial dollars rose 60% over the year and the BCRA nearly lost $ 3.1 billion in gross bookings in July. Some of the economists in contact with Cristina believe that at this rate the petrol of the plant will be enough for a month.

With annual inflation forecast to exceed 80%, analysts warn that the greatest risk of a forced devaluation is to trigger hyperinflation and exacerbate instability. They also agree on the need for further measures. “Even the meeting with the Fund can help, but I don’t think it will have a significant effect.If we continue to procrastinate, the tension will continue to rise, “said Sebastián Menescaldi, associate director of EcoGo.