Despite pressure by K to remove him from his post and the tensions caused by expected inflation of about 6% in March, Martín Guzmán did not intend to leave the fifth floor of the Ministry of Economy. He remains confident in the results of his latest administrations and is kept awake by the fulfillment of the agreement with the IMF, which was crushed by the same force that brought him from his Manhattan office to the Palacio de Hacienda.

The economic team is considering approving the first test, a compendium of objectives that take into account the lower financial deficit, reduction in the financial issue and the accumulation of reserves in the first quarter of the year. The Fund will have an advance at its annual meeting, where Guzmán will travel next week, but the review will take place in mid -May with the staff landing in Buenos Aires.

“We are doing well,” an official source assured. keeping up with the numbers. If net reserves are observed, the Central Bank has accumulated US $ 400 million above the required floor. It closed with sales in the foreign exchange market, but Miguel Pesce believes he sacrificed less than expected. That yes, IMF assistance is key, having transferred US $ 9,700 million to the Treasury, a portion of which went back to the organization after canceling maturities for US $ 2,800 million.

“Thanks to the disbursement of 2,892 million SDRs (net of payment of maturities) on March 25equivalent to approximately US $ 4,022 million, Central reached the goal of accumulating reserves for the first quarter: it added approximately US $ 1,600 million in the first quarter of the year, while the goal was US $ 1,200 million, “he said.

Now, Pesce needs to add another US $ 2.5 billion in the second quarter. The bad news is that new IMF disbursements will no longer be counted. The good news is that with the start of the high harvest season, exporters can liquidate up to US $ 7,000 million. Revenue of US $ 700 million is also expected from multilateral organizations. The challenge is for BCRA to buy them, something that will be complicated until March.

The strong contraction of the financial issue allows, in turn, that the Central Bank’s assistance to the Treasury will not exceed the ceiling of $ 236,800 million. “Treasury advances ended the quarter at $ 122 billion, less than the Fund’s goalused at the beginning of the year to buy foreign currency for the cancellation of amortization at the IMF in conjunction with the announcement that there was a dispute with the agency, ”EcoGo said.

On the tax frontGuzmán proposed a core deficit of 2.5% of GDP in 2022 (less than 3% in 2021) and a ceiling of 0.32% of GDP in the first quarter. In the first two months, the accumulated red was 0.13%. Considering the goal was $ 223,000 million and in February it reached $ 93,000 million, the Treasury had a margin of $ 130,000 million in Marchso analysts believe this goal was also fulfilled.

All eyes are still on winter due to rising energy subsidies. To meet the Fund’s goal, Guzmán ordered a new rate increase from the Energy Secretariat, which he faced opposition. He wants them to rise by 40% for most customers, a level lower than the 60% inflation forecast for this year, indicating more subsidies and gas imports.

“At the first light of financial traffic, in reality, concern is pointing the road ahead, and there are some clouds starting to appear. Economic subsidies are among the biggest growing in real terms, and fully include the negative impact.of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia entered only in the autumn and especially in the winter. In particular, in the first two months, spending on energy subsidies grew by 85.7% year-on-year.“, he pointed out Ecoviews.

The “war against inflation” also raises questions about spending. The Government approved a $ 6,000 bonus in April to 4.6 million retirees, something the Fund has advised against. The $ 27,600 million item represents 0.04% of GDP, a modest level, and an increase in collection for withholdings is also expected. What is not known is whether it will be enough to recover higher subsidies in the second half of the year.