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Budget 2023: Why the increase in state spending is not really one

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With a global increase of 14.5 billion euros in 2023, and several ministries that will benefit from a budget increase of more than 7%, state spending seems destined for inexorable growth. However, due to inflation, they will prefer to fall next year.

In the draft budget that will be presented to Parliament this autumn, Bercy foresees an overall increase in state spending of 3.6%. All the missions added up, the ministries will have to do with 14,500 million euros more than this year. And when we look at the financial boundaries assigned to each other in detail, we see six main priorities, at the top of which are very clearly work and employment.

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Budget increases 28% for Work and Employment

To give significant financial support to training, Bercy plans to dedicate a total of 6,700 million euros to the missions of the former ministry of Elisabeth Borne, 28% more than this year. In the interview he gave to Les Echos, the Budget Minister insists on the purpose of this massive increase:

This priority given to training is also reflected in the evolution of the budgets allocated to education: 5,000 million euros more. But there is also, in this specific case, financing the promise of the minimum salary for teachers at the beginning of their career at 2,000 euros net.

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Bercy will have to tighten his belt once again

Among the other priorities to which large budget increases have been granted, we can mention Defense (+3 billion euros +7%), security and justice (+2.1 billion euros, an increase of 8.9%), but also solidarity and integration (+2.1 billion euros, +7.6%) and ecology (+1.9 billion euros, +7.6%).

Such massive increases and, in the end, very little decrease. With the exception of Bercy who, like every year, tightens his belt. With numbers that will go down again to contribute to the reduction of 2 billion in the budget of the Ministry of Economy. Added to this reduction in financial resources is a significant drop in the financial allocation allocated to the recovery plan, which went from 13 to 4,400 million.

A deficit maintained, like this year, at 5% of GDP

Obviously, the diet imposed by Bercy will not be enough to avoid a deficit due, in particular, to this new global increase in planned spending. The government is still planning to keep the deficit at 5% of GDP, like this year.

On the other hand, contrary to appearances, this 2023 budget promises to break with the previous ones. Unlike last summer, it was made in a period of sharp price increases, both for production and consumption. And when we take inflation into account, we see that in the end these 15,000 million euros of additional spending are actually equivalent to a relative reduction in the State’s financial effort: “A reduction of 2.5% in volume,” insists the minister. of Public Accounts. In fact, this year’s inflation will be significantly higher than the 3.6% increase in the state budget.

And all public spending combined (social security, municipalities) Bercy forecasts a fall of 0.3%, again, taking into account inflation. To compare with the evolution observed before the Covid crisis. According to calculations from the Fipeco website, between 2011 and 2019 public spending increased by an average of 0.9% per year.

Author: pierre kupferman
Source: BFM TV

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