Wages downward in the national and popular government

We see that Kirchnerism does not spare instruments of power do not scratch, if necessary, when something burns and sees him in the lead role. The child of that model is now testing run the core of the fare and put it in sectors, especially rich ones, that have benefited from energy subsidies.

The first clarification states that there is no crime there, as both subsidies and royalties paid by color users are a consequence of the policies decided by the Government. That is, one of the effects of the combo that does not differentiate or discriminate between income and therefore It favors more those who have more.

From the beginning, years ago, some specialists, including several of the Christinist suit, warned that in the same way of distributing the benefits, a species of the nested type reverse populism, above very simple. And also that when the time comes, the system alone would not be enough to win the elections.

Some studies have revealed that the poorest and most numerous 30% of families receive less than 21% of benefits and that the rest is distributed between the middle and upper income strata. Of course, even that remaining 80% is not evenly distributed, because the unequal cut grows as one advances towards the higher rungs of the social pyramid.

Unsustainable subsidies

However, nothing prevented the interest rate freeze from being fully exploited during Cristina Kirchner’s second presidency, because it gave way politically and in a certain sense even sounded progressive. After, Public spending on energy subsidies went from $ 5 billion in 2010 to as much as $ 17.6 billion in 2014.

With the worsening of the social situation, real installed inflation close to 27% per annum, the highest level in two years, with poverty close to 30% and an exploding fiscal deficit, towards the beginning of 2015 the landscape began to say it was too much to ask for a new presidential turn.

The point is, after a macristic adjustment that has strongly shaken Cambiemos rates and electoral chancesKirchnerism, once again in power, is back on the field with the freeze and with the recipe for short bets and then we’ll see.

But it usually happens that if history repeats itself, and repeats itself traced, in at least one point the result may not be very different from what it was.

After two and a half years with the prices of electricity and gas hit ea huge tariff delay, the subsidy account accumulated until the end of July planted $ 23,600 million at the official exchange rate. I was going to score 28.5 billion dollars by 2022, that is, in just three years.

That is, an unsustainable picture wherever you look at it and much more unsustainable with the commitments made before the Monetary Fund got stuck in the middle. If you prefer, with the need to avoid the tremor that would lead to the default of the IMF just as the country and economic activity continue to suffer from a shortage of dollars.

He touched, finally and without useful gadgets, an adjustment in the form of a tariff. It remains to wait for the electricity and gas bills to verify the magnitude of the withdrawal, but a new push to the inflationary process and another blow to the frayed purchasing power of wages can already be taken for granted.

A study shared between the Flacso University and the Cifra, of the Kirchnerista central of CTA workers, puts in the concrete data the state in which the adaptation is found in the labor sector. Predictable, it’s not really one of the stimulants.

Purchase shutdown

It is said, for example, that between 2017 and 2021 the loss of income of registered and non-registered employees was not less than 22 percentage points and that the decline was very strong last year.

To understand better, we are talking about how 15 million workers are doing, of which just over 5 million are in the black, that is, without social and medical coverage, unemployment insurance and future retirement, among other things. What’s more, they charge half of what whites are charged.

If self-employed workers are added, the conglomerate’s loss of income is reduced, but it is only slightly reduced: it drops to 16 points. Of course, then we are talking about 20 million people.

Taking a closer look at industrial activity and retail and wholesale trade, the report’s authors warn in both sectors of an accelerated decline in real wages of 9.3%. In trade it took place between 2019 and 2021 and in industry from 2020 to 2021.

Given the full package of the report, one side of the coin says that wage earners have lost 8.8 points in income distribution and the other side, that the business sector has advanced 8 rounds. It was between 2017 and 2021 and especially in 2021. Again, the focus was on Kirchner’s management.

The point is that 2021 was followed by 2022 in which the employment situation is definitely worsening.

Without counting the direct and indirect effects of the next rate hike, inflation at the top of 90% or 100% sent the decline to 70% from December to December achieved by the EMU and to 65% of the bankers by the Christinist; it targets 88% of Oil and 83% of Commerce and generates preparations for proposals in Luz y Fuerza, in the Millers and in the Carnifici.

More of the series is the barrage of bonuses, reinforcements and flat rate increases that change little when salaries are about to lose again against inflation and the price of food continues to rise.

The latest survey from the consultant LCG says there is an average of 6.6% in the past four weeks. Vegetables go on with 12%: followed by 10.4% of bread, cereals and pasta; 9% dairy products and eggs and 6.6% fruit.

There is therefore nothing encouraging in the critical chapter of food which, according to INDEC, absorbs 45.2% of the expenditure of the families who occupy the last step of the income pyramid. Just to compare or to measure the distribution of income, at the top of the pyramid that 45.2 is reduced to 26.6%, that is about half.

The table is overturned when non-food shopping goes: in one step we have 50.8% and in the other 73.4%, or money to be used for clothing, electronics, tourism or leisure.

A clarification: the numbers correspond to the INDEC consumption structure for 2004-05, the latest available, and in fact warn that they are not up to par and that today the gaps are even greater.

Much more recently, at the end of July, the survey carried out by the Central Bank among specialists here and abroad predicted an inflation of 76.6% for the next year, or the probability of an increase in the loss of income of workers and greater inequality.

Regarding this big picture, the Flacso-Cifra relationship sneaks into the official interior with a partial interpretation, let’s say.

It keeps it Two political conceptions coexist within the Frente de Todos.

One of the Peronist and radical cuts of a “national” type, which he considers an expression of capital and local economic groups. And another “national and popular”, to which he associates Kirchnerism and especially Cristina K, for whom the purchasing power of wages is the real lever of growth.

There, in the result of that comparison, the report states, is the origin of the 2021-2022 wage drop. Again, their responsibilities placed elsewhere.

Sometimes it also happens that certain disappointments are frustrations resulting from being too excited about something or someone, or from overestimating that something or someone. But in the end the only truth is reality.