Although Massa has “calmed down” the markets, he still has the challenge of resolving the foreign exchange front without devaluing

In the first three weeks of Sergio Massa at the helm of the Ministry of Economy, “calm” financial variables: in just under a month, the blue dollar moved from its high of $ 314 to stabilize just above $ 290; dollar bonds ceased to record lows round after round and country risk moved away from the high zone reached in mid-July.

The prices of Argentine companies listed on the stock exchange are also recovering: abroad and on the local market, there are newspapers that earn almost 50% in August. The rebound in prices has consolidated in recent days, after Massa confirmed the arrival of Gabriel Rubinstein in his team and after showing concrete signs of fiscal austerity.

However, in the city they believe their program has yet to demonstrate how it will resolve the currency front and strengthen a central bank, which, although it has stopped losing reserves systematically, has not yet managed to recompose dollar income. “The ability to accumulate reserves in 2022, given the volume of the harvest, was very limited,” said José Echagüe of Consultatio.

“The foreign exchange front is where the minister’s agenda shows the least progress and where time passes fastest. The initial agenda included the objective of accumulating reserves through the implementation of the “soybean dollar” which would allow early settlements, but within a few days of the deadline the results are almost nil. The same happens with the reserve strengthening operations announced through the management of swaps or repurchase agreements “, added Echagüe.

For economists, the leeway to implement some of the announced fiscal corrections could be affected by the growing political crisis facing the Front of All. Massa will embark on a key trip to Washington this week. His goal is to obtain the dollars necessary to strengthen the coffers of the Central and, at least to delay, a change in the exchange rate regime.

“Fiscal restraints gained more visibility on the agenda, which helped improve dollarized bond parities after a strong downtrend until late July. However, the implementation of the announced measures represents a challenge“, they warned in Delphos.

At the same time, the consultancy highlighted that “without international financing” the corrections on the fiscal front and the need to incentivize exports “will require more than one fine-tuning.”

Among the rumors about the possibility of a decent jump in the exchange rate, in City it is hoped that in the coming weeks the idea of ​​a splitting of the exchange rate is confirmed, in a scheme where there is a higher commercial and financial dollar. It would be the confirmation of a system that in practice already exists for many sectors.

“The ideas of deployment returned after the appointment of Rubinstein who had promoted the scheme of a commercial and financial dollar, the first higher than the current one and would apply to all exchanges of goods. Roberto Lavagna’s shadow is projected on Con this plan, the former minister was successful thanks to the currency competitiveness offered by the devaluation of the post-convertibility peso “, said Guido Lorenzo, of LCG.

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