Analysts point out that the March data could mark a break in expectations.
Even if the economy minister came out to mitigate its impact, inflation surprised 6.7% in March and alerts were turned on to economists. Not only because it was the biggest jump in 20 years, but because they observed a dangerous acceleration, with negative effects on activity and revenue, due to the failure of the official strategy to prevent them.
“We see a recessionary scenario or no growth because despite the high statistical drag of the recovery, it will be difficult for the salary, even with advance parity, to follow this maelstrom of prices. And if it is to be talked about based on these levels, companies will cover themselves and the floor will no longer be 3%, ”he warned. Lorenzo Sigaut Gravinapartner of balance.
After a 4.7% increase in February, the Government announced a “war against inflation”, launched new regulated baskets and a subsidy to lower the price of flour. The March data, however, exceeded 5.5% market expectations and this is the highest record since April 2002.when monthly inflation is 10.4% then leave convertibility.
For April, the outlook is also not encouraging. Although inflation is expected to be lower, projections put it at between 4.3 and 5.5%with the an increase of 12% in telephony, 6% again in prepaid and 9% in private schools. Prices and food will have a slight increase. And in the City, there have been 40% increases in subways, 30% in taxis and 25% in tolls.
“This is key for inflation to go down now, otherwise expectations will be more relaxed and we will think of 70% inflation., very dangerous. The reality is that April is falling, something similar should be happening in the US, ”he said. Fernando Maruleconomist in FyMAwhere they expect a 4.7% in April and 61% in 2022.
In April, the $ 6,000 bonus to retirees and retirees, a 50% increase on the Alimentar card and some salary adjustments will occur, some will be for peer development. The government has referred to this in recent weeks in the face of picket protests and amid pressure to oust Martín Guzmán.
“This is a negative government mark that is likely to mark a break. This shows the lack of confidence and the inexperience of the integrated strategy to date to attack the rise in prices and show a horizon that boosts expectations ”, said the deputy director of EcoGo, Sebastian Menescaldiwho bet a 5.5% inflation in April.
Maria Castiliglionifrom S&Tforecast a rose more than 4% this month from a 6% adjustment to the salary of building managers and prepaid, in addition to a 5% drag on fuel. “Usually it’s not as complicated as in March, we saw the food loosen up in the first week, but there is still a long way to go,” he said.