Nicola Arceodirector of the consulting firm Economics and Energy and former vice president of Administration and Finance of YPF, warned that “the shadows of the sector are the tax problem and subsidies”, during the cycle Democracy and development organized by Clarione.
“I see lights and shadows. If we see oil and natural gas production growing. This is the optimistic side. Production marks a positive path,” said the director of the consulting firm Economy and Energy.
“The shadow of the sector is the fiscal problem and a significant problem with subsidies to the energy sector. This year they will exceed $ 15 million. The fiscal problem generated by the energy sector is significant in macroeconomic terms,” he explained.
He said that this year “with the recovery in post-pandemic international prices and the war with Ukraine, the external problem is added to the fiscal problem”.
“Argentina will have a trade deficit in the energy sector of between 5,000 and 5,500 million dollars and poses a new constraint. A problem that was fiscal becomes a fiscal and external problem,” added the former Undersecretary of Planning at the Ministry of Economy.
Arceo, on the other hand, assured that “there is a social resistance to the rise in tariffs and the last governments have faced it “.
“There has been a significant change in the pricing policy in the last 60 days. Progress has been made in segmentation and a cap on consumption has been added under which the rate is not subsidized,” he considered.
The specialist was part of the second table of the meeting, called “Strategies to promote the energy sector “together with energy consultants Mauricio Roitman and Daniel Gerold.
Roitman asked for “macroeconomic stability”
Roitman, former president of the regulatory body (Enargas), stressed that “there is a trilemma that is a problem for energy policy decisions”.
“On the one hand we have the production of hydrocarbons, the generation of electricity, on the one hand the tax issue and energy subsidies and on the other hand the transfer of costs to tariffs”, he remarked.
“We have a trilemma between the fiscal deficit, subsidies and the transfer of the cost of energy to users. The government takes note of looking after the fiscal budget because that ends up in an economy that has no financing, ends up in monetary inflation and inflation. “, he added.
He stressed that “it is important to have a minimum of macroeconomic stability” and that “there is nothing more important than fiscal balance”.
“It is of the second order of importance to change the regulatory frameworks. What we need to put first is macroeconomic stability,” he said.
Gerold and an appeal to politicians
Daniel Gerold – founder and director of G&G Energy Consultants – said that “self-sufficiency must be economical so that we export more during the year than we import”.
In this sense, he asked “to have a simple consensus law on exports of hydrocarbons and renewable resources”.
“There is a short-term challenge. Political leaders should put this at the center of their agenda. How can I believe that everything will be solved if they don’t have this at the center of the agenda?” she questioned.
“It is not easy to say that I will increase the rates. The cost has increased enormously. And for the opportunity we lack the most important thing. We have the people, the companies, the resources … We lack the capital,” he noted.
In addition, he stressed that the state must sit down and explain to the people. “It makes no sense that there are 47 million tariff tables. The tariff should be one and give those who need a plan or a card to accompany the transition.”
“This logic is not in political leadership. It is absolutely essential that they do it,” he added.
Finally, he said that “the imports will not happen because we do not have how to pay for them”.
In that sense, he expanded: “You have to have a battery of measures. Savings will happen in the same way, but forced. This is the worst scenario in which winter will not cut residential houses but industries. This exacerbates the problem.”
“Political color doesn’t matter, there is an opportunity to consolidate structural decisions. If you don’t make the transition, the economy will explode in the air for the next two years,” he warned.
Source: Clarin
