Analysis of the new soybean dollar: “This is the first time I see a devaluation that lasts a month”

Just before starting his trip to Washington, Sergio Massa announced the exchange of the “soybean dollar”, the price of the US currency that was set in July to speed up the settlement of cereals but, as expected, never worked. In this regard, the voices for and against the provision are starting to be heard. For the field, the plan improves the price, but asks for the full price to be paid, while for some agricultural market analysts it is a measure that must be taken advantage of.

“This is the first time in history that I have seen a government devalue for a month”, said Pablo Adreani, agricultural market consultant and consultant and founder of El Faro Trading.

In this regard, he continued: “This is a devaluation of the dollar for producers who sell soybeans, which lasts one month, all of September. The devaluation is no less, it is an average exchange rate adjustment of 40%, taking buyer and seller Banco Nación “.

Along these lines, Adreani assured that Sergio Massa’s decision to start “it’s a positive measure” for producers who have to sell soybeans in dollars. “It seems to me that it is an opportunity to be seized”She said.

The government made official this Monday in the Official Gazette the mechanism through which it exports soy can be adjusted according to the new and special value of the so-called “soybean dollar”, set at $ 200, until the day September 30th.

As recalled by the former president of the Chamber of Deputies in the announcement, among the benefits that currency exchanges will bring, “More than $ 5,000 million will go into reserves” and the “98% of the production will be exported”.

Speaking of what I do with the pesos, the agrarian analyst assured that “there are many options, for example by placing them on a fixed term linked to the dollar linked”, that is, adjusted by the evolution of the exchange rate.

For Adreani it is a measure that must be taken advantage of. “It is difficult to compensate for an improvement in the price of soy since October 1st this sharp increase the product can have, “he warned.

According to the calculations of the founder of El Faro Trading, “it is possible that they will manage to obtain 25% of the unsold soybeans”, which represents about 6 million tons. And in foreign exchange, taking. And the issuance of foreign currency, the sale of that soybean and also the export of oil and flour “about 3.5 billion dollars could enter the country”.

After wondering why the measure was not extended to wheat, corn or sunflower, the analyst stressed that in the end the truth will lie with the sovereign, ie the producer “. “It will analyze the measure and say what level of confidence this government generates to sell under this new regime”, concluded.

What they say to the government

“This is a measure that significantly improves the income of soybean producers by 40%. The soybean producer was selling a ton on average of $ 52,000 and will now charge around $ 72,000, a 40% improvement. This allows the producer to improve its capacity for working capital resources, “said Agriculture Secretary Juan José Bahillo.

Furthermore, he stressed that the measure announced this Sunday by the Minister of Economy, Production and Agriculture, Sergio Massa, It is quite simple for producers, to allocate to the accounts they have, directly, and does not remain in any intermediary.

“Receive this improvement fully. I have no doubt that the producer, because I know them, will join this export increase program. Because even later the manufacturer will certainly invest again in the sector, “he said.

On the other hand, he said it improves the dollar income to the country for Central Bank reserves. “A $ 200 billion revenue improvement is expected to occur through September 30. This strengthens the public finances “, he concluded.

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