For economists, the soybean dollar erases expectations of devaluation but is not enough to rebuild reserves

Sergio Massa leaves for the United States to seek financial support amid mounting political and social tensions and with a pressing level of central bank reserves. A few hours after the trip, the Minister tried to give a strong signal to the foreign exchange market: supported by his entire cabinet and with the main businessmen in the sector announced a temporary dollar hike for soybeans.

The announcement of the “soybean dollar” had an immediate effect on the gap: this Monday the financial dollars and the blues deflated. However, the results have not yet been seen in the Central Bank Reserves: far from receiving more settlements from the field, the agency had to sell 9 million dollars.

City analysts believe the signal is on the right track contain devaluation expectations, but that It is not enough to rebuild the coffers of the plant in the medium term.

Ricardo Delgado, an economist at Analytica, said the announcement of a temporary dollar at $ 200 for the agro-export sector comes in a key month. “September is a pivotal month for correct indentation of the reserve and start accumulating them. Massa had promised an income of $ 5 billion in the first 60 days of his tenure, so it had been 30 days and it was time to give a signal, “he said.

“With this provision Mass practically devalued for a sector that supplies dollars, which can serve in some way to banish expectations of devaluation in the rest of the economy. Therefore, the financial front can be cleaned up and reassured. However, the economy still retains enormous structural weaknesses, “Delgado said.

The economist stressed that the measure implemented by the economic team, for which an income of 5,000 million dollars is being pursued for this month, can help the country achieve the quarterly reserve accumulation target agreed with the Fund, estimated at US $ 4,100 million; but this is not enough to exceed the annual target in terms of accumulating dollars in the coffers of the Central, set at 5,800 million dollars.

Trying to respect what was agreed with the Fund seems essential to strengthen the reserves of the Central. According to a report by the Mediterranean Foundation, in the first seven months of the year, the agency’s reserves fell by $ 1,431 million, despite disbursements for special drawing rights. Without these, they calculate, the negative balance would have risen to $ 5.4 billion.

In this sense Pablo Repetto, of Aurum Valores, stated that “the most significant implications of the measure in a broader perspective” will be seen after the dollar supply has stabilized in about six months. And among them, he highlighted an improvement in reserves in September, but a “worsening of international reserves in the following months due to fewer liquidations “, and explained that “there will be a rush to liquidation now, but then there would be a disincentive pending new exceptions”.

In short, the effort of the announced measure is useful only to the economists consulted by Clarín “postpone” the tension for a possible devaluation, but its consequences are still widespread.

Matías de Luca, of LCG, said: “The announcements on the soybean dollar they can ease devaluation expectations to the extent that it is reflected in the facts. That is to say, that the crop is actually settled with that exchange rate differential. We will have to wait. “

Beyond the temporary incentives, the problem lies in how the government manages the dollarization demand, without suffering too much activity. In a report for his clients, Common Funds administrator MegaQM pointed out: “The recent uncertainty effect has delayed exports by approximately $ 1.2 billion in the past 90 days. An attractive soybean scheme could attract the liquidation of a large part of what is withheld.

According to his calculations, the additional supply of dollars this month could be around 1,500 and 2,000 million dollars. “This approach makes it possible to clarify the near-term outlook, but by the end of the year, payments for imports that have been funded at 180 days must be addressed. At that point, the BCRA must have a back-up cushion that allows us to face another seasonally complex phase, especially while the structural demand for foreign currency remains so high “.