A pagan hidden in the confusion of the reserve crisis

The lack of dollars and the government’s urgency to strengthen ever-weaker reserves appear everywhere, and sometimes with tightening form. This is where the, oddly enough, fact comes into play that, in the midst of the operation that aims to boost soybean exports, including on sight devaluation, the Central Bank would hit. a breakeven at the cost of credit for those who keep production.

It is obvious that the tightening goes hand in hand with the need to add exports of at least $ 5 trillion US, by the end of September and as dictated by the transitional validity of the soybean dollar and the debt maturity calendar. And it is also obvious that The move sows suspicions of harsh Kirchnerism.

A rarity: the pressure on producers collides with the winds of victory reigning in the offices of the Ministry of Economy, fueled by the idea that the target will be exceeded and the end of the year will be reached without financial shocks. Another, that everything happens just when Sergio Massa accelerates negotiations with international credit organizations in the United States.

In the midst of all the fuss, there is a key financial instrument of BCRA in motion that will continue to hold out, a kind of pure Christian type. similar to a pagan.

It’s a dollar letter that the National Treasury will use to cover the difference between the $ 200 exchange rate it pays to soybean exporters and the $ 148 it charges importers, for example. How does the hand arrive, there there will be a lot of money at stake and a new blow to the already crumbling balance of the Central.

It will be public debt and at the same time no debt. Another piece of the long series of bonds with a ten-year maturity, practically zero-interest, captive, non-transferable to third parties and renewable at maturity.

It is therefore clear why they are called pay-offs and why, since the first one released in 2012, Cristina Kirchner has used them seven times during his second presidency and four in the current vice presidency.

No story that matters, son of that limitless jubilee is deleveraging K: an impressive package of 57.712 million dollars that It has moved sharply from the BCRA box to the creditors’ accounts. That is, a bunch of Letters that continue and will continue to be renewed systematically.

And as history repeats itself sometimes, too many times, it is worth remembering that Cristina left the presidency, in 2015, with reserves in the red, with riveted stocks, more obstacles on obstacles to imports, checks on weed and a foreign trade deficit of $ 3.4 trillion. That’s where we are today, again.

A dollar of soy at $ 200 is equivalent to a dollar exempt from withholding taxes and an anomaly, but above all it means a way to continue walking the arc and avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. Thereafter, if nothing collapses and the oilseed complex’s exports exceed the $ 5 trillion target, the move won’t sound so much like an economic management success as a new triumph for silver.

Something similar happens with regard to the data of the official news, when they are analyzed through some spreadsheets of the Ministry of Economy.

The official news says that the IDB has issued a $ 1,200 million credit for Argentina, unconditionally and geared towards strengthening reserves.

The Economy spreadsheets show maturities with the IDB of $ 837 million in 2022 and, thereafter, a very modest net balance of $ 363 million. Translated: the credit will be used to recover the amount paid and that will be the strengthening of reserves.

Another: During conversations with Massa in the United States, the directors of the World Bank pledged $ 900 million over the next six months. This time it was clear that they will be funds for real investments, disbursed as the projects progress and with a national counterpart. Nothing to bolster reserves.

The case, again, is that if soybeans produce exports of over $ 5,000 million in September, we will find ourselves facing an unprecedented milestone, which goes from the most well-known record: the 4,200 million dollars recorded in May of this year. , before the favorable curve reversed.

But not everything will be pure profit for the BCRA, not even to sing victory: the currencies that enter today, in the heat of the dollar-soybean at 200 pesos, they will not enter later and we will have to wait for the strong exports of the next harvest to cash in on the good stuff. Let’s say that the manna curve will start around April-May 2023 and, in the meantime, You will have to make do in the best possible way.

In the meantime, until the end of the year, almost 8,000 million dollars net expire, or even counting the dollars of the Monetary Fund that will arrive under the agreement recreated by Christianity and approved by Congress without the vote of Christianity.

And since there is no way to cover them, the Government has once again demonstrated the extent of the rigidity in which it is and we are: it has extended until 31 December a long series of restrictions on imports that began in June and expired on December 30 September. . Initially it took her six months, that is, six months.

In this act, it replaced the requirement of prior approval for a large batch of products and, above all, the obligation to procure their own dollars to finance the purchase of supplies and equipment essential to local production processes.

From a similar combo emerged a huge gap between the imports recorded on the INDEC trading exchange and those recorded in the exchange balance of the Central Bank. Currencies, always currencies, there are already 7,500 million dollars on the account and another example of the economic dislocation in which we are trapped.

Obviously: on both sides it orders that the reserves of the BCRA are on the ground and that it is necessary to ration what is and what enters, according to an order of priority often arbitrarily established. The point is that in sectors that are strongly or more or less dependent on the outside world, that is, in all, those that disappeared hit production, influence prices and discourage investments.

Of course, behind the subsequent import records there are also maneuvers to obtain cheap dollars from the Central Bank and, continuously, to exploit the gap always around 100% with the parallels.

This explains, also in part, that after years of trade surpluses, deficits like those of June and July had reappeared, fueled by purchases abroad that are around 45% against exports that go to 20 and 7%.

There isn’t much room then, or any, to think about new dollar privileges or to feed on announcements that promise to make access to official currencies more flexible for some sectors. The hard and fast rule is to tighten as much as possible and close the gates, even if there are always exceptions.

At the top of the list of priorities is the need to support purchases of natural gas, the very expensive liquefied gas that arrives by ship, and diesel oil. Send the slogan of taking no chances, above those in the government that raise expectations for when the winter is over.

The background of the latest INDEC statistics marks energy imports of 9.008 million dollars, between January and July. Against energy exports of $ 4.434 million, the balance sheet sings a red of $ 4.574 million.

Accompanying the report are strictly qualitative data that define the picture of the situation: measured in quantity, imports increased by 55.7% from one year to the next and those exported a modest 14%. This is called the absence of national production and puts the yellow light on the 2023 accounts.

If you prefer, a light similar to the one that illuminates the estimates that some specialists manage: energy trade deficit between US $ 4,000 and US $ 6,000 million, their projections say. And, moreover, there is no certainty that by the winter of 2023 the pipeline that will connect to that a promise that never ceases to crown called Dead Cow.