In City they hope that the exchange generated by the soybean dollar will continue

This Monday the local market will return to operate with savers and investors attentive to the news that could come from Sergio Massa’s meeting with the Fund in the United States and to the pace of soybean liquidation. The successful start of the soybean dollar program served to deflate the price of the currency in the parallel market and City traders are hoping that the renewed calm on the gearbox will last a few more wheels.

The “little summer” which implies the official projection of a record foreign exchange income of $ 5 trillion in September reached decompressing both the blue dollar and financials last week. The ticket went on the street for $ 274, $ 48 less than the day Sergio Massa was announced as Silvina Batakis’ replacement at the Ministry of Economy.

At the same time, the decline in financial exchange rates has deepened over the past five rounds: Cash on hand so far accumulates a decline of 4.1% this month; while the MEP dollar fell by 4.8% since the beginning of September. Although the gap began to narrow and the Central Bank contributed by increasing the daily devaluation rate, the distance between the wholesaler and the dollar on the stock exchange is still close to 100%.

Nery Persichini of GMA Capital warned: “In the last week the rate of devaluation was over 110%. Due to the perverse dynamics caused by the exchange rate differential, the monetary cost will be lower to the extent that the official price is higher. “At the same time, he added:” For the first time since March 2021, the exchange rate is moving above inflation and above the interest rate. “

FMyA economist Fernando Marull stressed: “The better international environment and greater stability brought by the” Massa Plan “continue to support a” structurally “more stable parallel dollar and bonds above US $ 26.. The consequences of the “soy dollar” are more emissions and this can “wake up” the MEP dollar. But if it does, we believe the increase will be transitory “-

The Municipality warns that the pax exchange is not guaranteed due to the implicit costs generated by the scheme of a preferential dollar for the soybean sector in the Central Bank’s balance sheets and the consequent inflationary pressure.

Last Thursday, the organization’s board of directors kept Leliq’s rate at 69.5%, despite Massa himself having anticipated before leaving for Washington that the organization chaired by Miguel Pesce would present measures to absorb the excess pesos generated. from the official strategy of “buying high dollars” from rural producers and “selling them cheaply” to the rest of the economic sectors that access the single free trade market.

During the past week alone, the monetary expansion associated with the soybean dollar reached $ 246 trillion.

This timean expected rate hike for this Thursday is discounted, although in the Municipality they warn that the bill for this new regime will exceed a new increase in the cost of money. The City’s projection is that after INDEC inflation data is known Wednesday, the agency increase the rate between 400 and 500 basis points, to bring it close to 74% per annum.

A dollar differential for one sector also creates distortions for the rest of the economy. Consultation analysts stated: “After an unprecedented period of more than 100% gaps, suddenly the agricultural sector that is liquidating exports at a TC of 200 is faced with the possibility of dollarizing at 280.that is, with a gap of “just” 40% “.

“In a small market like Argentina, it doesn’t fhigh that this temptation is so widespread that it exerts pressure on prices“, added in the consultant.