Due to restrictions and the decline in energy purchases, imports they showed a slight deceleration in August and totaled $ 7,850 million. The number represents 4% less than in July and 10% less than in June, when the highest record of the last 30 years was reached, but it is still a high level, reflecting the difficulties in managing dollars in a scenario of scarcity and tensions with the industry due to lack of inputs.

The Central Bank data, in fact, show that external purchases in CIF terms (real value of the goods during customs clearance) They increased by 36% from the $ 5,754 million recorded in August last year. Already in the months of June and July, the sharp increase in imported goods relative to exports brought the trade balance into negative territory and triggered alarms about its impact on reserves.

The jump was caused by the demand for energy, which in August amounted to $ 1,350 million. Although it represents 70% more than the same month last year, implies a 40% drop compared to Julybehavior that would be associated with the variation in temperatures and the lower demand for coverage of energy production, which made it possible to partially reduce the volume of imports and to ease exchange rates for other marginal items.

The lack of supplies, spare parts and machinery he called for a meeting last week between the government and UIA industrialists, who called for a “relaxation” of stocks after the decline in July. Since the end of June, the Central Bank has tightened import payments due to difficulties in meeting targets with the IMF. The provision expired at the end of September, but the institution extended it last week until the end of the year.

Despite the increased supply of dollars for the “soybean dollar”, the measure reveals the government’s concern about the lack of foreign currency. Last month, however, the Secretary of Commerce, Matías Tombolini, advanced in more restrictions on consumer goods by expanding the list of tariff positions with Non-Automatic Licenses. The idea is to save about 3,000 million dollars to be allocated to “priority” sectors.

The head of the central bank, Miguel Pesce, assured in June that, with the reduction in energy demand, foreign currency would be released for production. Although capital goods grew by 25% in August compared to the previous month and intermediate goods by 10%, consumer goods and parts and accessories for capital goods barely moved (4.6 and 6.5%), while motor vehicles decreased by 25%.

More than two weeks ago, before leaving for the United States, the Minister of Economy limited car import km 0 and also input purchases for the production of electronics. Thus it happens that the imports of goods accumulated up to August 2022 increased by 43% compared to the same period of the previous year, reaching an all-time high compared to similar periods, according to the economic team.

Without enough dollars in Central, analysts expect to less activity in the last months of the year from the acceleration of the exchange rate and inflation and stocks. On the other hand, they anticipate a smaller supply of foreign currency starting October 1, when the “soybean dollar” runs out, so new measures are expected to prevent the depletion of reserves, without ruling out a split, devaluation or a greater stock.

“It will be difficult to reach the period from December to March of the following year. It is that there will be no more dollars withheld from agriculture and the demand for dollars exceeds supply on schedule, even when payments for energy imports are moderate. . The answer to “not arriving” will not be devalued. We believe that efforts will be made to continue to regulate the outflow of capital through more restrictions on the dollar for tourism, for example“Lcg noted.