Sergio Massa has already sent his draft budget for 2023 to Congress. Photo: REUTERS / Evelyn Hockstein
Almost near the deadline set for his presentation, he entered this Thursday the House of Representatives the first draft budget Serge Massa which predicts 2% GDP growth next year, with a dollar forecast at $ 269.9 by December 2023 and 60% inflation.
At around 11:40 pm, after the extension of a tax package was half sanctioned and after the Tax Consent became law, the entry of the budget proposal for next year was formalized.
The text you had access to Clarione predicts a total of almost 29 billion pesos in current and capital account expenses, with an estimated slightly higher estimate 22 billion pesos of current and capital resources of the national administration by 2023.
Meanwhile, a payment of 2.9 billion pesos for the payment of public debt and a financial deficit estimated at around 6 billion pesos.
The presentation of the proposal sets the goal of economic growth with social inclusion, overcoming internal obstacles, linked to the balance of payments crisis and the high social vulnerability left by the Covid 19 pandemic, together with the economic impacts of the invasion From Russia to Ukraine.
Specifically, the budget has four objectives:
* Promote the fiscal order
* Support the trade surplus
* Strengthen international reserves
* Generating development with social inclusion.
As for the tax ordinance, the project ensures that in 2022 the target of 2.5% of the primary deficit, for which the freezing of the personnel system was strengthened for all sectors of the National Public Administration. The goal is to reach 1.9% of GDP in 2023.
Similarly, the Ministry of Economy ratified the decision not to use the balance of the advances of the national treasury for the rest of the year and the repayment of 10,000 million pesos to the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic.
On the side of fiscal resources, Massa envisages various interventions such as increasing the perception applied to the purchase of foreign currency, the payment of the personal income tax for businesses and the creation of the “Export Increase Program”.
The Tigrense is also committed to strengthening international reserves, for which it confirmed in the project that an advance export regime has been agreed with the value chains of fishing, agriculture, mining and other sectors.
GDP growth of 2.0% is forecast for 2023. At the sectoral level, an expansion of 1.6% is expected for the service sectors by 2023, while the sectors of production of goods would increase by an average of 2.8%.
In addition, the recovery of the agricultural sector stands out with an increase of 6%, while for the manufacturing industry and trade, increases of 1.5% and 1.8% respectively are expected.
Also with regard to consumption, growth was estimated at a similar pace to that of GDP, after the sharp decline recorded in 2019 and 2020, decelerating to a change of 1.9% by 2025.
While the recovery in investment is expected to continue, with an increase of 2.9% in 2023, maintaining that growth rate in 2025.
Meanwhile, exports of goods and services would maintain their upward trend, with a 7.1% jump in 2023, starting from the very low level of 2020, while the volume of imports would continue to advance driven by economic growth.
The nominal exchange rate is projected a $ 269.9 for December 2023with an increase of 62%, while inflation is estimated to slow down to a 60.0% YoY
The strategy of the Ministry of Economy points to the fact that the nominal exchange rate would continue to accompany the reduction in inflation, which is projected into a 33% by December 2025.
As for the collection of national taxes and social security contributions, the projection of the Ministry of Economy reaches 34,978,541 million pesos dollars in 2023, for which it will be 78.6% higher than expected by 2022. , down by 0.18 percentage points of GDP compared to the previous year.
In this way, according to the numbers managed by Massa, the tax burden would go from 23.95% of GDP in 2022 to 23.77% in 2023.
For VAT, a collection of 10,363,812.7 million dollars is calculated, an increase of 80.7% compared to 2022, and for income taxes that will reach 7,961,357.4 million dollars, with a an increase of 78.3% over the previous year and a reduction in GDP of 0.05% points.
The sharing resources will arrive $ 732,521.3 millionan increase of 78.4% compared to the previous year, and for the tax check a collection of 2,446,245.2 million dollars is expected, registering an increase of 81.5% compared to 2022.
Social security contributions and contributions will increase by 83% compared to 2022 due to the estimated increases in nominal taxable wages and the recovery of jobs. In this way, in terms of GDP, the collection will reach 5.16%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points compared to 2022.
Although the proposal entered this Thursday, the intention of the ruling party is to discuss it in committee in the coming days with the presence of Massa or members of the economic team.
Gustavo Berone
Source: Clarin
