Inflation gives no respite: for this month they estimate a floor of 6%

After knowing the August inflation which surprised with a 7% increase, analysts estimate that for September the change in prices – with the onset of the removal of tariff concessions through – will remain above 6%. In a range of 6.3% to 8%, economists point out that the pressure on prices will continue at this level also in the coming months.

From the ACM consultancy they point out that a slight decline in inflation is likely with a floor of 6.5% due to the impacts of the increases in electricity and gas in regulated goods. While, “For the rest of the year we expect a minimum monthly inflation of 6%”, their economists pointed out.

According to Lautaro Moschet, economist of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, the data for the first fortnight of September (5.2%) indicate that the measurement of the month will be more than 6%. “In particular, the main increases came from the area of education, where private tuition has increased to 24%. Meanwhile, “Alcohol and Tobacco” recorded an increase of 13.2%. In addition, the removal of energy subsidies began to take effect so that the rumor “Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels” increased by almost 8% “, advancement.

One of the elements that will motivate the rise in the September index will be the rise in transport how taxis will adjust their rates by 30% and the underground another 40%. To this must be added the increases a domestic and school employees of the province of Buenos Aires. This combo, for the consulting firm Ecolatina, would place the September index in excess of 6% (82% year over year).

Also according to Eliana Scialabba, executive director of the Center for Economic Studies Argentina XXI, the increase in prices will be about 6.6% monthly, above 83% per annum. According to the directive, “the updating of tariffs, the dynamics of the monetary expansion and onerous liabilities by the BCRA and the acceleration of the amortization rate in recent weeks, it will put pressure on the price level. “Meanwhile, the counterweight will be given by the rise in the interest rate, which somehow seeks to take pressure off the demand for money and stimulate savings,” he commented. .

According to his vision, The government does not have a coherent plan to lower inflation. “We hope they will try to get to the elections with the lowest possible political cost. It will be the challenge of the next government to present an overall plan, also paying the initial costs of these measures,” said Scialabba.

From advisory firm LCG, analysts are forecasting inflation for September at least 6.5%. “We estimate inflation around 100% per annum for December, consistent with a slowdown towards the end of the year. It is likely that this figure will work as a threshold for 2023 ”, they stressed in their latest report.

With one of the highest projections, Juan Pablo Ronderos, of Map Economic & Business Advisors, is seeing an increase 8% for this month’s retail prices, “corrected upward after the August data which did not include some rate adjustments,” he explained. Like his colleague, the specialist believes that “there are no signs of change in this price dynamic. The challenge is from October onwards. Get out of a dynamic of monthly inflation of 7% towards an economy of 5% monthly ”.

“But the future could be even more complex “. Ronderos points out. And he cites just one example: “if the Central Bank were able to buy the 5,000 million dollars that the Economy estimates will be liquidated in September, an issue of pesos for 1 billion dollars would be generated, almost a quarter of the monetary base, realizing unprecedented pressure for the rest of the year. In a frame where the speed of money is still very high“, accurate.