In 1,000 days of Alberto Fernández’s rule, inflation has accumulated 221%

In the review of the results achieved in the 1,000 days in which he was president, with which he filled the posters in the media and on social networks, Alberto Fernández did not mention the evolution of prices, a field in which he lost due to a landslide. In these 34 months, accumulates 221% inflation and doubles that of its predecessor, Mauricio Macri, who had added 110% in the same period, according to the measurement made by the consulting firm FMyA.

From 2003 onwards, every presidential term has brought with it an extra notch for inflation. When Néstor Kirchner hit 1,000 days, the price index hit 22.5%. In the same period of the first term of Cristina Kirchner, accused of inflation 6.5%. And in the second term he jumped to 100.7%.

GMA Capital details which are the voices that have risen the most in the management of Alberto Fernández: to dressone of the sectors most protected by the government, climbs on the podium with the 353%. Restaurants and hotels follow, which, despite the blow of the pandemic, add up 270% in 1000 days. And in third place the food, which is skipped since 239%, above the general index, despite the multiple price agreements that the government still clings to today.

Inflation of 221% accumulated by Fernández has gone through several cycles. The first year, marked by the pandemic, the index marked 36%a noticeable decline after the 53.8% of the last year of Macri.

Isolation and paralysis caused prices to fall in 2020, but in 2021, with the reactivation of the activity, they began to overheat. That year ended with an increase of 50.9%. And so far in 2022 it accumulates 57% and prepares to finish 100%. For 2023 the prospects are not very optimistic. The market average sees inflation at 84%but some consultants predict it will be back in circulation 100%.

“We estimate 100% inflation for December, consistent with a slowdown towards the end of the year. This figure is likely to work as a threshold for 2023,” says consulting firm LCG.

Over the course of this year, inflation has found a new low every quarter. “The average monthly inflation of the first half fluctuated around 5.3%but the temporary loss of control of macro variables that was unleashed at the beginning of June with the Treasury’s difficulties in refinancing the maturities of the internal debt pushed this lifeline towards figures above 6% due to an acceleration of the pace of monetary issuance in the context of further declines in the demand for money, “says Jorge Vasconcelos, economist at IERAL.

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The estimate of Fernando Marull, director of FMyA, is that September inflation will be 6.5% due to the higher statistical resistance and will be placed at 6% monthly for the rest of the year. Thus, the consultant’s projection for 2022 reaches 98%. Economists see inflation above 6% for September.

“Inflationary expectations are” unanchored “e today it seems difficult to return to inflation of 3% per month. The uncertainty that arose after the departure of Minister Martín Guzmán on Saturday 3 July continues to persist. The expectation of devaluation of the official dollar or a “jump exchange” still present. Stocks on imports and the exchange gap at 100% it penetrates more and more into prices“Marullo sums it up.

Added to this is that both public utility rates and the dollar seem “behind”. “Since Fernández took over the official dollar, he still lags behind by 20% and tariffs, one by 30%. Wages, on the other hand, are more equal to inflation, but in 2022 the parities are at 70% with an expected inflation of almost 100%. And for the rest of 2022 there are still wage revisions “.

Marull also points out that much of the current inflation is explained by the large fiscal deficit and monetary issue since 2020. “The small central bank machine has issued nearly 11% of GDP unsupported: this is not free and is reflected in the excess pesos that the economy currently shows. Inflation will not stop without a surplus tax “.

“For the first time since hyperinflation the market expects inflation to break the 60% barrier in each of the next 3 years, ”says GMA.

When it comes to inflation, the image returned by the regional mirror is gloomy. GMA data shows that Peru and Chile have accumulated an average nominal jump of 100% (doubling in prices) over the past two decades, while in Argentina the debacle is 11,000% (multiplied by 111).

AQ