Last weekend’s rains in the main agricultural area weren’t enough to save the grain and crop estimates continue to decline.
According to the latest Rosario Stock Exchange report, a month ago it was estimated at 17.7 million tons. But the month of SeptemberI went through almost no rains, like August and July in much of the Pampa region.
Also, subsequent frosts September, interspersed with temperatures that exceeded 30 ° C in an environment of very low relative humidity, worsened the conditions of the wheat and lowered the expectations of national production. Therefore, 2.5 million hectares of wheat, 40% of the wheat planted, are in poor condition.
Therefore, with a cultivated area of 5.9 million hectares, the entity foresaw 16.5 million tons. 28% less wheat than the last cycle. In this way it would be the lowest production in the last 7 years, even below the very complicated 2020/21 cycle, in which only 17 million tons were produced.
The first major rains in the Pampa region recently came between 18 and 19 September. They only left more between 15 and 30 mm in the southeast of Córdoba, in a small strip of south central Santa Fe and in the southwest of Buenos Aires. Only in the center of the province of La Pampa the accumulations were between 30 and 60 mm.
Wheat batches in the provinces of Córdoba, Chaco, Santiago del Estero, south of Santa Fe and north of Buenos Aires are the most affected. There was a good one, this week’s rains were surprising and left more millimeters than expected, but they reached a very limited area of Cordoba: the departments of Marcos Juárez and Unión.
The only incentive is the price of wheat, which rose sharply this week: it jumped $ 27 (9%) in just 3 days due to the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s leading grain markets. . It closed at $ 305 on Monday and closed at $ 332 on Wednesday.
In this context, heForeign exchange earnings from grain exports will also decline from what was expected a month ago. They are expected to earn $ 4.46 billion, $ 100 million less than a month ago, but $ 1.3 billion more than last cycle.
Corn planting decreases and soybean area increases
Although in principle a decrease in the corn area of 400,000 hectares was expected compared to the last cycle, the cut in the planting area which is estimated in September is greater and rises to a total of 600,000 hectares, according to the report of the Rosario Exchange. . and one is expected production which would be around 56 million tons.
For this new cycle it is estimated the intention to plant 8.0 million hectares, or that it translates into a 7.0% year-over-year decrease. “The reasons are the same as highlighted a month ago: the persistent lack of water in the last 36 months in the Pampa region – especially in the center, west and north – which has intensified in the last 3 seasons and the forecasts of a third consecutive Nina “, has explained.
Meanwhile, the soybeans are again adjusted with an increase. This time with 200,000 hectares more that will stop being planted with corn to increase the number of soybean intentions to 17 million hectares. The increase would be 900,000 hectares, 5.6% more than in 2021.
In this way we would be faced with a production of about 48 Mt (400,000 ha are taken as the average area lost or not collected).