In the graphs of Public Health France, some curves seem to descend. For a few days, the number of new positive cases of Covid-19 has been falling in France. 127,642 cases have been detected in the last 24 hours, compared to 154,615 last Wednesday, according to figures published by Santé Publique France.
The number of cases on average over seven days is also falling after an almost continuous rise since early June. They were 123,321 on Wednesday, down from 127,174 the day before. France thus recovers a seven-day average similar to that of July 6, after a peak of 130,691 reached on July 10.
The Minister of Health, François Braun, estimated, while calling to “be very careful”, that “it would seem that we are probably reaching the peak”.
“We have the impression that the curve is rounding a bit, now we don’t know if it will be a prolonged plateau or if it will go down,” he said on RTL on Wednesday.
Hospitalizations continue to rise
If it is possible that the peak of infections has been reached, that of hospitalizations could still take several days or even several weeks to overcome. It is likely that “it will arrive rather in August,” estimated the epidemiology researcher Pascal Crepey on the microphone of BFMTV, “because the peak of hospitalizations is two or three weeks behind the peak of infections.”
Santé Publique France has recorded 1,479 new hospital admissions in the last 24 hours, compared to 1,163 seven days ago. Between July 4 and 10, admissions increased 19%. The same for intensive care services, which registered 761 admissions in one week, an increase of 22% compared to the previous week.
As for the number of hospitalized patients, it is already about to exceed 20,000, a level that has not been reached for two months, but still far from the peak of more than 33,000 registered in February.
“According to the models of the Institut Pasteur, we expect 1,700 new daily hospital admissions until July 18,” warned Arnaud Fontanet, a researcher at the Institut Pasteur and member of the Scientific Council in an interview given at the JDD a few days ago.
“The trajectory brings us closer to the level reached in the spring with the Omicron sub-variant, BA2. We could even observe a higher peak than in April, ”he also indicated.
In this context, the epidemiologist called again to protect the most fragile.
“There will be an eighth wave and probably a ninth”
The Minister of Health also called for “living with the virus” and continuing to apply barrier gestures because this seventh wave will not be the last.
“We are in the seventh wave, there will be an eighth, there will probably be a ninth, that is what the scientific experts tell us. We have to learn to live with this virus, taking up reflex gestures, good gestures, ”he declared. François Braun on France inter Friday, citing in particular “washing hands” and “wearing a mask in crowded places”.
Furthermore, a dozen countries have already experienced the spread of a new variant for two months. Called BA2.75 or “Centaur”, it has already been detected in the UK, US, Australia, Germany and Canada. If France is not currently affected by this variant, Centaure could “spread around the world at great speed during this holiday period,” according to Geert Molenberghs, an expert in biostatistics, speaking with the Belgian newspaper news.
Source: BFM TV
