There is one in two chances that the world’s average annual temperature will temporarily be 1.5 ° C above pre-industrial values for at least one of the next five years, the UN said on Tuesday.
Temporarily crossing this threshold within one year is not, however, synonymous with a long-term overrun of this threshold, within the meaning of the Paris Agreement on climate change. This agreement aims to curb the rise of the global average temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels and if possible to 1.5 degrees.
According to a new climate bulletin published on Tuesday by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the likelihood of temporarily exceeding the 1.5 ° C threshold has continued to rise since 2015, the year in which this risk is close to zero.
For the years between 2017 and 2021, the probability of exceeding is 10%. He passed almost 50% for the period 2022-2026indicatesWMO. But there is only a small probability (10%) that the five -year average exceeds the +1.5 ° C threshold.
This study shows, with great scientific reliability, that we are very close to the moment when we will temporarily reach the lower limit of the Paris Agreement.explanation of the Secretary General ofWMOPetteri Taalas.
” The 1.5 ° C figure is not a randomly selected statistic. This indicates the point at which the effects of climate will become increasingly dangerous for populations and for the entire planet. “
As long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, the temperature will continue to rise. At the same time, our oceans will continue to heat up and acidify, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea levels will continue to rise, and extreme weather will continue to intensify.he warned.
He pointed out that Arctic warming is specifically markedeven the conditions that exist in this region have effects on the entire planet.
According to this bulletin on the annual to decadal climate forecast on a global scale, compiled by the Met Office of the United Kingdom (Met Office) which is the main center ofWMO for this type of forecast, there is a high probability (93%) that at least one of the years between 2022 and 2026 will be the warmest on record.
This record is currently held by the year 2016, which marked a strong stage droughta natural phenomenon in the ocean that leads to rising temperatures.
It is also 93% likely that the average temperature for the period 2022-2026 will be higher than the previous five years (2017-2021).
Dr. Leon Hermanson, of With Office, led the publication of the newsletter. He believes these forecasts show global temperature will continue to rise.
But, he said, a year that exceeds the 1.5 ° C threshold does not mean that we will exceed the emblematic threshold of the Paris Agreement; however, this is a sign that we are approaching a scenario where the 1.5 ° C threshold may be exceeded over an extended period of time..
In 2021, the planet’s average temperature will be 1.11 ° C higher than the pre-industrial benchmark, according to a recent report byWMO in the context of the global climate. The final version of the document will be published on May 18.
According to’WMOthe episodes La Nina the consecutive start and end of 2021 resulted in a cooling of global temperatures, but this is only temporary and does not reverse the trend of global warming in the long run. The look of an episode drought will immediately contribute to the temperature rise.
Source: Radio-Canada
