Mortality during a pandemic: not easy to see clearly

We wanted to know if mortality in the first 18 months of the pandemic was actually specifically associated with COVID, or if something more widespread was happening.summary of the study’s author, Professor Kim McGrail of the University of British Columbia.

At the other end of the scale, the death rate associated with COVID-19 is lowest in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.

The data used in this study came from Health Canada for the period between March 2020 and October 2021, i.e., before the emergence of the Omicron variant.

Ontario is the province where the excess mortality rate (i.e., the difference between the expected number of deaths and the actual number of deaths) and deaths caused by COVID-19 are most closely aligned. . Excessive mortality is higher in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan than elsewhere in the country.

The exact link between coronavirus pandemics and excessive mortality is difficult to establish, however, the researchers warn. British Columbia, for example, was swept away by the heatwave in the summer of 2021, and the heat is increasing the number of casualties.

On the other hand, because Canadians are confined to their homes, there has also been a decrease in the number of deaths caused by road accidents and flu -related during the pandemic.

And more than that there were people who delayed their care, who avoided going to the hospital for fear of the virus, surgeries being pushed back, Professor McGrail said. All of these things can also be the source of mortality. It is very difficult to know what would have happened without the pandemic.

The pandemic, we need to remind you, has caused havoc CHSLDResidential and long -term care centers of Quebec. Analysts argued that it distorted the picture of the province’s high mortality rate, as some of the seniors swept away by the virus were about to end their lives.

Yes, COVID may have shortened the lives of some seniors by a few days, Professor McGrail admits, but that’s probably not the case for everyone.

But maybe they’ll only die in two or three years, he pointed out. These are two completely different situations, and they should not be confused.

That said, in analyzing the weekly mortality trends associated with COVID-19 in Quebec and Nova Scotia, the researchers found excessive mortality in some weeks, but lower than expected deaths in other weeks, so That’s possible [la maladie] caught people actually ending their lives in Quebecsaid Ms. McGrail.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a complex tapestry of interconnected and interconnected elements, he continues, and it becomes very difficult to determine which factor is responsible for what, but it is very important to try to understand anyway.

We are not immune to the emergence of a new variant or a new health crisis, Professor McGrail notes, and the The diversity between the provinces will help us so that we can better understand the experience we have gone through.

We need to register total mortality much, much faster, because obviously, it is total mortality that we must follow, she said. You need to take the time to understand what factors are contributing to this. I really think that the only way to have an adequate answer in the future is to understand what worked well and what didn’t work well.