Verstappen wants to be a two-time Formula 1 champion: what he needs to have his morning of glory at the Japanese GP

As time drops to 4am in Argentina on Sunday, Formula 1 could consecrate its champion at the traditional Suzuka circuit. Max Verstappenafter Singapore’s painful seventh place, he has a new chance to win his two-time Scudetto in Japan, by the 18 date of the dominating World Cup with 104 points of advantage On Charles Leclerc.

Only the pilot ferrari and her partner inside Red Bull, Sergio PerezI’m still able to dethrone the current champion, because Giorgio Russelwith the second Mercedes, was eliminated from the title battle finishing last (14th and two laps) and scoring no points in the Marina Bay street last Sunday.

Although having failed to put together his sixth consecutive winVerstappen added six points and stretched his 2021 harvest to 341 points, not just 104 more than Leclerc but 106 more than Pérez, who won in Singapore but wouldn’t be surprising if he obeyed the orders of the Red Bull team if an anticipated consecration of the Dutch depended on him.

So what does Verstappen have to do to be champion on Sunday?

The Japanese Grand Prix will go against the grain for the Argentines: free practice will start on Thursday at midnight (Friday at 0 and 3 in the morning), the ranking will be on Saturday at 3 and the race, Sunday at 2 (ESPN and Stella +).

With 138 points up for grabs (considering that each of the five remaining grand prix awards 25 points to the winner, plus each point for the fastest lap and 8 for the sprint race in Brazil on November 12), Verstappen must leave the circuit located 400 kilometers south of Tokyo with 112 points of advantage.

If successful, the Dutchman will become the third driver to secure the title four races before the end of the championship. Who were the others? The Germans Michael Schumacher, in 2001 and 2004, and Sebastian Vettel in 2011, always with Red Bull.

With this scenario, a victory by Verstappen in the Japanese Grand Prix will allow him to be champion even if Leclerc gets on the podium, as long as he is on the third step or even lower. But one detail can crown it beyond what the Ferrari driver does: win the race and score the point on the fastest lap.

So the excitement will continue until the end of the race if no one leaves: Verstappen thus closed in the first -Bahrain- and third round -Australia- and the Monegasque in the sixth, eighth and twelfth (Spain, respectively Azerbaijan and France).

Likewise, his victory would assure him Czech Pérez could not win the title regardless of his position at Suzuka. At the same time, Verstappen also has the lead in heads-up play with Leclerc of victories in competed races, leading the statistics 11-3 in the (very) hypothetical event that the two finish the season in Abu Dhabi on equal points.

the Dutch he will not be crowned on Sunday if Leclerc or Pérez finish ahead of him or if they finish outside the top six as it happened in Singapore. In both cases the definition will last at least until the race in the United States, October 23 in Austin.

How to be a champion without winning in Japan?

If the Dutchman is denied victory again, his options are varied. The important thing is that you will need a minimum of eight points more than Leclerc and six more than Pérez. Then?

• If Verstappen finishes second. He will add 18 points and Leclerc will have to finish above sixth place, which awards eight. If the Dutchman mentioned above makes the fastest lap, the Monegasque will only serve to be fifth (10). In the case of Pérez, he should be fourth or third.

• If Verstappen finishes third with the bonus point of the fastest lap, Leclerc will have to finish fifth or higher and Pérez will have to finish at least fourth.

• If Verstappen finishes third without the extra point of the fastest lap, sixth place for Leclerc or fourth for Pérez will be enough to keep the title race another grand prix.

• If Verstappen finishes fourth, Leclerc must finish at least seventh, regardless of whether his title rival gets the extra point or not. Pérez should finish sixth or seventh with the fastest lap.

• If Verstappen finishes fifthLeclerc should be in the top eight and Pérez seventh.