River needs an epic night in the Copa Libertadores, but the numbers don’t favor them: how many 0-3 series have they managed to overturn with Gallardo

River he’s destined for an epic comeback next the defeat suffered against Atlético Mineiro in Belo Horizonte by 3 to 0. They must win by the same difference to force penalties or by four distances to qualify for the final without the need to define by twelve passes. It’s all or nothing.

The only history of defeats by three goals difference in the first leg dates back to Marcelo Gallardo’s first cycle. There are three of them and only in one of them he managed to get through the series and advance to the next round.. It happened in the quarterfinals of the 2017 Copa Libertadores, when they lost by that score against Jorge Wilstermann in Bolivia and In the rematch at Monumental he scored 8 goals.

There was another comeback that could not be achieved due to the away goal. It was for the 2019 League Cup quarter-finals. Atlético Tucumán beat 3-0 in their own stadium and won 4-1 at Monumental Riverin one of the best games of the first cycle of Doll. However, due to the double goal rule on someone else’s field, the Tucumán team passed.

And the next one occurred in the 2020 edition of the Libertadores. In the semi-final against Palmeiras, they lost 3-0 in the first leg at Independientewhere they played at home and in the return match they won 2-0 and were on the verge of an epic. Worth mentioning is the intervention of VAR to cancel a goal by Gonzalo Montiel due to an advanced position of millimeters by Rafael Borré at the beginning of the action.

Subsequently, both in the Muñeco cycle and in the rest of River’s history, there have been other comebacks but with a difference of one or two goals.

In the Gallardo era we remember the one that overthrew Cruzeiro in the quarterfinals of the 2015 Libertadores (0-1 in the first leg and 3-0 in the second leg); that of Gremio in the semi-finals of the 2018 Cup (0-1 in the first leg and 2-1 in the return, favored by away goals) and that of the final of the 2019 Recopa Sudamericana against Atlético Paranaense (0-1 and 3-0) .

If you take this year’s matches, the data is not very encouraging. Of the 47 games played in 2024, River have won by a difference of three or more goals in just 6. And of the last 23 games, he did so in only one: September 13 against Atlético Tucumán, 4 to 1 and with Gallardo as coach.

Even winning by three goals on Tuesday does not guarantee qualification, because in that case it will have to be decided on penalties. And lately River hasn’t been doing well from the 12 steps. In fact, it was in the last six definitions he had.

These issues aside, River will look to defy the statistics and break the matrix to leave a new mark in history.